Sat, May 2 2026 • 11:00 •
Dirbtines Dangos Stadionas
Expected Goals
0.56 (league 1.52)
2.30 (league 1.52)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 7.4% | 15.8% | 73.8% |
best score tips
0 - 2
15.1%
0 - 1
13.2%
0 - 3
11.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Atmosfera | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Tauras | 0 | 5.7% | 13.2% | 15.1% | 11.6% | 6.7% | 3.1% |
| 1 | 3.2% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 1.7% | |
| 2 | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Tauras carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 77 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Tauras -27.5, Atmosfera -36.0.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Tauras
vs
Atmosfera
Elo gapTauras +77
Home / draw / away48% / 21% / 31%
Expected home share61%
Combined Elo3150.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3150.1
Elo home share
61%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Tauras | Atmosfera |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1595.9 | 1554.2 |
| Form Elo | 1575.2 | 1524.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1536.8 | 1554.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1625.7 | 1651.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1601.3 | 1560.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -27.5 | -36.0 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Tauras last-5 Elo change: -27.5; Atmosfera last-5 Elo change: -36.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Tauras | Atmosfera |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 40% |
| Attack | 38% | 50% |
| Defense | 56% | 44% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
5.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
90%
FT probability
2.5+
63%
FT probability
3.5+
45%
FT probability
BTTS
78%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Tauras | Atmosfera | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Wins | 67% | 33% | 50% | 25% | 100% | 50% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 33% | 67% | 50% | 75% | 0% | 50% |
TaurasWLWWLL
AtmosferaWWWLLL
League goals
| Metric | Tauras | Atmosfera | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 11 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 3.5 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 3 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 9 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Tauras | Atmosfera | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 83% | 83% | 83% | 83% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 33% | 50% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 17% | 33% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 17% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Tauras | Atmosfera | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Tauras | Atmosfera |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Tauras | Atmosfera |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 1 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 3-1 | 1-3 | — |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Tauras | Atmosfera |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 43% | 57% |
| Def | 56% | 44% |
| Poisson Distribution | 17% | 83% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 63% | 38% |
| Total | 51.5% | 48.7% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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