Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 19:00 •
Miguel Morales
Expected Goals
2.32 (league 1.29)
2.06 (league 0.73)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 42.0% | 19.5% | 33.5% |
best score tips
2 - 2
7.2%
2 - 1
7.0%
1 - 2
6.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Independiente De Chivilcoy | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Douglas Haig | 0 | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 2.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | |
| 2 | 3.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 2.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% | |
| 4 | 1.5% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Douglas Haig carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 54 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Douglas Haig +41.3, Independiente De Chivilcoy +23.0.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Douglas Haig
vs
Independiente De Chivilcoy
Elo gapDouglas Haig +54
Home / draw / away44% / 24% / 32%
Expected home share58%
Combined Elo3026.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3026.7
Elo home share
58%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Douglas Haig | Independiente De Chivilcoy |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1522.7 | 1504 |
| Form Elo | 1568.1 | 1524 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1507.1 | 1470.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1491.7 | 1482.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1548 | 1528.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +41.3 | +23.0 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Douglas Haig last-5 Elo change: +41.3; Independiente De Chivilcoy last-5 Elo change: +23.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Douglas Haig | Independiente De Chivilcoy |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 100% | 67% |
| Attack | 100% | 100% |
| Defense | 50% | 38% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
83%
FT probability
2.5+
58%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Douglas Haig | Independiente De Chivilcoy | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Wins | 100% | 100% | 100% | 67% | 50% | 60% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 0% | 20% |
| Loses | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 20% |
Douglas HaigWWWWW
Independiente De ChivilcoyWLWWD
League goals
| Metric | Douglas Haig | Independiente De Chivilcoy | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 6 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Douglas Haig | Independiente De Chivilcoy | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 60% | 100% | 60% |
| 1.5 | 60% | 20% | 60% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 0% | 20% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Douglas Haig | Independiente De Chivilcoy | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Douglas Haig | Independiente De Chivilcoy |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Douglas Haig | Independiente De Chivilcoy |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 2 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-2 | 1-3 | 3-0 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | — | — | — | 3-2 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Douglas Haig | Independiente De Chivilcoy |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 53% | 47% |
| Def | 56% | 44% |
| Poisson Distribution | 56% | 44% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 45% | 55% |
| Total | 51.3% | 48.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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