Sun, May 3 2026 • 20:00 •
Leonardo Costa
Expected Goals
1.32 (league 1.29)
1.77 (league 0.73)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 28.4% | 23.2% | 47.2% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.6%
1 - 2
9.4%
0 - 1
8.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Gimnasia Chivilcoy | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| El Linqueño | 0 | 4.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 6.0% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 0.9% | |
| 2 | 4.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Gimnasia Chivilcoy carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 20 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: El Linqueño -21.5, Gimnasia Chivilcoy +17.7.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
El Linqueño
vs
Gimnasia Chivilcoy
Elo gapGimnasia Chivilcoy +20
Home / draw / away34% / 28% / 38%
Expected home share47%
Combined Elo3015.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3015.9
Elo home share
47%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | El Linqueño | Gimnasia Chivilcoy |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1480.4 | 1535.5 |
| Form Elo | 1468.8 | 1548.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1521.1 | 1483 |
| Attack Elo | 1452.2 | 1446.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1533.6 | 1579.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -21.5 | +17.7 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. El Linqueño last-5 Elo change: -21.5; Gimnasia Chivilcoy last-5 Elo change: +17.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | El Linqueño | Gimnasia Chivilcoy |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 67% |
| Attack | 67% | 67% |
| Defense | 0% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
64%
FT probability
2.5+
45%
FT probability
3.5+
32%
FT probability
BTTS
61%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | El Linqueño | Gimnasia Chivilcoy | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Wins | 67% | 0% | 33% | 67% | 33% | 50% |
| Draws | 0% | 33% | 17% | 33% | 0% | 17% |
| Loses | 33% | 67% | 50% | 0% | 67% | 33% |
El LinqueñoWLWLLD
Gimnasia ChivilcoyLDLWWW
League goals
| Metric | El Linqueño | Gimnasia Chivilcoy | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 4 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | El Linqueño | Gimnasia Chivilcoy | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 83% | 67% | 33% |
| 1.5 | 17% | 33% | 17% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 33% | 0% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | El Linqueño | Gimnasia Chivilcoy | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | El Linqueño | Gimnasia Chivilcoy |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | El Linqueño | Gimnasia Chivilcoy |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 0 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | — | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 3-1 | — | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | El Linqueño | Gimnasia Chivilcoy |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 29% | 71% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 25% | 75% |
| Poisson Distribution | 45% | 55% |
| H2h | 33% | 67% |
| Goals | 43% | 57% |
| Total | 37.5% | 62.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…