Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 00:30 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.81 (league 1.46)
3.64 (league 1.81)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 14.4% | 13.1% | 55.4% |
best score tips
1 - 3
6.2%
1 - 4
5.7%
2 - 3
5.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Bubali | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Sporting | 0 | 0.4% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.3% |
| 1 | 0.8% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.1% | |
| 2 | 0.7% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.8% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.3% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Sporting carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 25 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Sporting -16.7, Bubali +42.9.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Sporting
vs
Bubali
Elo gapSporting +25
Home / draw / away39% / 27% / 34%
Expected home share54%
Combined Elo3020.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3020.9
Elo home share
54%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Sporting | Bubali |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1505.2 | 1515.7 |
| Form Elo | 1504.6 | 1531.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1492.4 | 1503.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1712.1 | 1539.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1505.1 | 1507.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -16.7 | +42.9 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Sporting last-5 Elo change: -16.7; Bubali last-5 Elo change: +42.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Sporting | Bubali |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 60% |
| Attack | 33% | 75% |
| Defense | 8% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
5.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
85%
FT probability
3.5+
63%
FT probability
BTTS
82%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Sporting | Bubali | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 6 | 8 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| Wins | 33% | 50% | 43% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Draws | 0% | 13% | 7% | 13% | 0% | 7% |
| Loses | 67% | 38% | 50% | 38% | 50% | 43% |
SportingLWLDWLWWWLLWLL
BubaliLLLWLWWDWWWLLW
League goals
| Metric | Sporting | Bubali | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 33 | 40 | 16 | 20 | 36 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.6 |
| GA total | 12 | 12 | 24 | 12 | 13 | 25 |
| GA avg | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Sporting | Bubali | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 71% | 86% | 79% | 86% |
| 1.5 | 43% | 57% | 64% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 36% | 21% | 50% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 7% | 29% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 14% | 0% | 21% | 7% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Sporting | Bubali | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Sporting | Bubali |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Sporting | Bubali |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 0-17 | 5-1 | 0-7 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 4-1 | 1-3 | 5-3 |
| Goals For | 3 | 17 | 5 | 7 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Sporting | Bubali |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 25% | 75% |
| Att | 31% | 69% |
| Def | 35% | 65% |
| Poisson Distribution | 34% | 66% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 37.5% | 62.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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