Sun, May 3 2026 • 14:00 •
Monjasa Park
Expected Goals
0.86 (league 1.67)
2.76 (league 1.45)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | 14.0% | 70.8% |
best score tips
0 - 2
10.2%
0 - 3
9.4%
1 - 2
8.8%
Score & goals probability table
| FC Copenhagen | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| FC Fredericia | 0 | 2.7% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 3.6% |
| 1 | 2.3% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 3.1% | |
| 2 | 1.0% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
FC Copenhagen carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 57 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: FC Fredericia -26.0, FC Copenhagen +46.5.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
FC Fredericia
vs
FC Copenhagen
Elo gapFC Copenhagen +57
Home / draw / away32% / 24% / 44%
Expected home share42%
Combined Elo3142.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3142.9
Elo home share
42%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | FC Fredericia | FC Copenhagen |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1525.6 | 1617.3 |
| Form Elo | 1517.9 | 1621.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1470.4 | 1556.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1535 | 1727.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1463.4 | 1560.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -26.0 | +46.5 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. FC Fredericia last-5 Elo change: -26.0; FC Copenhagen last-5 Elo change: +46.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | FC Fredericia | FC Copenhagen |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 100% |
| Attack | 67% | 100% |
| Defense | 0% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 18 | 3.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
94%
FT probability
2.5+
66%
FT probability
3.5+
47%
FT probability
BTTS
79%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | FC Fredericia | FC Copenhagen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 21% | 33% | 28% | 40% | 50% | 45% |
| Draws | 21% | 20% | 21% | 27% | 7% | 17% |
| Loses | 57% | 47% | 52% | 33% | 43% | 38% |
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FC CopenhagenWWWLWDWLDWDLDWLWLLLLDLLLWWWWW
League goals
| Metric | FC Fredericia | FC Copenhagen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 13 | 25 | 38 | 28 | 27 | 55 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| GA total | 29 | 33 | 62 | 19 | 22 | 41 |
| GA avg | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | FC Fredericia | FC Copenhagen | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 69% | 93% | 86% | 79% |
| 1.5 | 48% | 69% | 52% | 52% |
| 2.5 | 14% | 38% | 28% | 10% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 7% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | FC Fredericia | FC Copenhagen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | FC Fredericia | FC Copenhagen |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 7 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 7 |
Streaks
| Metric | FC Fredericia | FC Copenhagen |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 8 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-2 | 1-3 | 7-0 | 1-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 5-0 | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | FC Fredericia | FC Copenhagen |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 17% | 83% |
| Att | 25% | 75% |
| Def | 25% | 75% |
| Poisson Distribution | 24% | 76% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 40% | 60% |
| Total | 26.7% | 73.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home5.60 @ Unibet
Draw4.60 @ Unibet
Away1.60 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.47 @ Betano
Under 2.52.80 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.52 @ Betano
No2.45 @ William Hill
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League standings
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