Sat, May 2 2026 • 18:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
0.83 (league 1.68)
2.55 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 10.0% | 15.5% | 70.0% |
best score tips
0 - 2
11.1%
0 - 3
9.4%
1 - 2
9.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Vitória da Conquista U20 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Jequie U20 | 0 | 3.4% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 3.0% |
| 1 | 2.8% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 2.5% | |
| 2 | 1.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Vitória da Conquista U20 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 37 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Jequie U20 -24.5, Vitória da Conquista U20 +30.6.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Jequie U20
vs
Vitória da Conquista U20
Elo gapVitória da Conquista U20 +37
Home / draw / away33% / 26% / 41%
Expected home share45%
Combined Elo2954.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2954.4
Elo home share
45%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Jequie U20 | Vitória da Conquista U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1441.2 | 1513.2 |
| Form Elo | 1420.3 | 1537 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1467.9 | 1498.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1455.4 | 1527.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1493.6 | 1538.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -24.5 | +30.6 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Jequie U20 last-5 Elo change: -24.5; Vitória da Conquista U20 last-5 Elo change: +30.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Jequie U20 | Vitória da Conquista U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Attack | 20% | 45% |
| Defense | 70% | 90% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
77%
FT probability
2.5+
54%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
65%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Jequie U20 | Vitória da Conquista U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Wins | 40% | 0% | 22% | 60% | 50% | 56% |
| Draws | 0% | 50% | 22% | 20% | 25% | 22% |
| Loses | 60% | 50% | 56% | 20% | 25% | 22% |
Jequie U20LLLWDLDWL
Vitória da Conquista U20WWLDDWLWW
League goals
| Metric | Jequie U20 | Vitória da Conquista U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 15 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 8 | 7 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Jequie U20 | Vitória da Conquista U20 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 56% | 67% | 78% | 33% |
| 1.5 | 44% | 56% | 44% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 33% | 22% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 11% | 11% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 11% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Jequie U20 | Vitória da Conquista U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Jequie U20 | Vitória da Conquista U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Jequie U20 | Vitória da Conquista U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | — | 5-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-0 | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Jequie U20 | Vitória da Conquista U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 31% | 69% |
| Def | 25% | 75% |
| Poisson Distribution | 27% | 73% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 57% | 43% |
| Total | 39.2% | 60.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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