Bundesliga
— Austria
Fri, Mar 20 2026 • 18:30 •
Merkur-Arena
Expected Goals
0.85 (league 1.43)
1.87 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 16.4% | 22.0% | 60.3% |
best score tips
0 - 1
12.3%
0 - 2
11.5%
1 - 1
10.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Red Bull Salzburg | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Sturm Graz | 0 | 6.6% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 5.6% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 2.4% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Sturm Graz | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Attack | 55% | 55% |
| Defense | 73% | 55% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
79%
FT probability
2.5+
56%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Sturm Graz | Red Bull Salzburg | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 11 | 11 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 22 |
| Wins | 45% | 64% | 55% | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Draws | 9% | 9% | 9% | 27% | 36% | 32% |
| Loses | 45% | 27% | 36% | 27% | 18% | 23% |
Form: Sturm Graz: WLWWLWWWWLLDLWLWLWLWDW • Red Bull Salzburg: DWWWDLLWWDWWDLDWWLDWDL
League goals
| Metric | Sturm Graz | Red Bull Salzburg | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 12 | 21 | 33 | 22 | 20 | 42 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| GA total | 14 | 12 | 26 | 14 | 12 | 26 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Sturm Graz | Red Bull Salzburg | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 91% | 59% | 82% | 77% |
| 1.5 | 41% | 36% | 64% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 14% | 23% | 23% | 9% |
| 3.5 | 5% | 0% | 14% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 9% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Sturm Graz | Red Bull Salzburg | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Sturm Graz | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Sturm Graz | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 0-3 | 5-0 | 1-5 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 3-1 | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Sturm Graz | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 63% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 31% | 69% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 59% | 41% |
| Total | 56.8% | 43.3% |
Advice: Double chance : Sturm Graz or draw
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Sturm Graz = 0.85 (league 1.43), Red Bull Salzburg = 1.87 (league 1.25)
| Red Bull Salzburg | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Sturm Graz | 0 | 6.6% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 5.6% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 2.4% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 16.4% · Draw 22.0% · Away win 60.3%
vtt 1 , vtd1