Bundesliga
— Austria
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 15:00 •
Lavanttal-Arena
Expected Goals
1.41 (league 1.45)
0.80 (league 1.24)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 51.0% | 27.3% | 21.3% |
best score tips
1 - 0
15.5%
1 - 1
12.4%
0 - 0
11.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Grazer AK | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Wolfsberger AC | 0 | 11.1% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 15.5% | 12.4% | 5.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 10.9% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 5.1% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Wolfsberger AC carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 19 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Wolfsberger AC -29.5, Grazer AK +7.3.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Wolfsberger AC
vs
Grazer AK
Elo gapWolfsberger AC +19
Home / draw / away38% / 28% / 34%
Expected home share53%
Combined Elo3022
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3022
Elo home share
53%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Wolfsberger AC | Grazer AK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1503 | 1519 |
| Form Elo | 1469.6 | 1524.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1527.1 | 1455.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1593.5 | 1510.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1567.2 | 1553.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -29.5 | +7.3 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Wolfsberger AC last-5 Elo change: -29.5; Grazer AK last-5 Elo change: +7.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Wolfsberger AC | Grazer AK |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 47% |
| Attack | 14% | 64% |
| Defense | 50% | 57% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Wolfsberger AC | Grazer AK | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 14 | 28 | 14 | 14 | 28 |
| Wins | 29% | 21% | 25% | 36% | 14% | 25% |
| Draws | 43% | 14% | 29% | 43% | 21% | 32% |
| Loses | 29% | 64% | 46% | 21% | 64% | 43% |
Wolfsberger ACLWWLDWDWWLWDLLLWLDLLDLLDLDDL
Grazer AKDLDDLLDDLDLWLWWLLDDLWLWWWLDL
League goals
| Metric | Wolfsberger AC | Grazer AK | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 17 | 16 | 33 | 20 | 13 | 33 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 15 | 26 | 41 | 18 | 24 | 42 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Wolfsberger AC | Grazer AK | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 71% | 79% | 68% | 89% |
| 1.5 | 32% | 54% | 32% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 14% | 14% | 11% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Wolfsberger AC | Grazer AK | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Wolfsberger AC | Grazer AK |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 6 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 6 |
Streaks
| Metric | Wolfsberger AC | Grazer AK |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 1-3 | 3-1 | 1-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-0 | 0-3 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Wolfsberger AC | Grazer AK |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 30% | 70% |
| Att | 18% | 82% |
| Def | 46% | 54% |
| Poisson Distribution | 65% | 35% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 57% | 43% |
| Total | 47.8% | 52.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.31 @ Dafabet
Draw3.47 @ Pinnacle
Away3.15 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.00 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.87 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.80 @ Betfair
No2.04 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
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