GFA League
— Gambia
Fri, May 1 2026 • 16:30 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
0.69 (league 0.91)
1.25 (league 0.88)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 20.6% | 29.7% | 49.5% |
best score tips
0 - 1
17.9%
0 - 0
14.4%
1 - 1
12.4%
Score & goals probability table
| GPA | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Fortune | 0 | 14.4% | 17.9% | 11.2% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 9.9% | 12.4% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 3.4% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Fortune carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 57 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Fortune +3.1, GPA -14.9.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Fortune
vs
GPA
Elo gapFortune +57
Home / draw / away44% / 24% / 32%
Expected home share58%
Combined Elo3092.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3092.8
Elo home share
58%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Fortune | GPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1557.3 | 1535.5 |
| Form Elo | 1560 | 1529.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1497.1 | 1524.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1486.5 | 1441 |
| Defense Elo | 1603.1 | 1596.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +3.1 | -14.9 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Fortune last-5 Elo change: +3.1; GPA last-5 Elo change: -14.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Fortune | GPA |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 33% |
| Attack | 75% | 13% |
| Defense | 38% | 63% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 1 | 0.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
49%
FT probability
2.5+
34%
FT probability
3.5+
24%
FT probability
BTTS
54%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Fortune | GPA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 9 | 12 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 21 |
| Wins | 33% | 42% | 38% | 30% | 45% | 38% |
| Draws | 33% | 50% | 43% | 60% | 36% | 48% |
| Loses | 33% | 8% | 19% | 10% | 18% | 14% |
FortuneWWDLDWDWLDDWLDWDWWLDD
GPAWWWDWDDWDLWDWDDDLDDLW
League goals
| Metric | Fortune | GPA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 8 | 13 | 21 | 5 | 12 | 17 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 9 | 8 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 11 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Fortune | GPA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 62% | 62% | 38% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 14% | 19% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 5% | 0% | 5% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Fortune | GPA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Fortune | GPA |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Fortune | GPA |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 0-2 | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Fortune | GPA |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 62% | 38% |
| Att | 86% | 14% |
| Def | 38% | 63% |
| Poisson Distribution | 38% | 62% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 56.0% | 44.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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