Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 11:00 •
Arena Francisc Neuman
Expected Goals
1.61 (league 1.37)
1.02 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 50.5% | 24.9% | 24.0% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.8%
1 - 0
11.6%
2 - 1
9.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Farul Constanta | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Uta Arad | 0 | 7.2% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 11.6% | 11.8% | 6.0% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 9.3% | 9.5% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 5.0% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Uta Arad carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 78 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Uta Arad +5.6, Farul Constanta -24.5.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Uta Arad
vs
Farul Constanta
Elo gapUta Arad +78
Home / draw / away48% / 21% / 31%
Expected home share61%
Combined Elo3003.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3003.6
Elo home share
61%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Uta Arad | Farul Constanta |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1523.5 | 1480.1 |
| Form Elo | 1519.1 | 1454.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1508.5 | 1480.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1513.9 | 1510.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1504.5 | 1562.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +5.6 | -24.5 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Uta Arad last-5 Elo change: +5.6; Farul Constanta last-5 Elo change: -24.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Uta Arad | Farul Constanta |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 27% |
| Attack | 69% | 31% |
| Defense | 63% | 63% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
75%
FT probability
2.5+
53%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Uta Arad | Farul Constanta | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 18 | 17 | 35 | 18 | 17 | 35 |
| Wins | 50% | 29% | 40% | 44% | 18% | 31% |
| Draws | 22% | 35% | 29% | 22% | 24% | 23% |
| Loses | 28% | 35% | 31% | 33% | 59% | 46% |
Uta AradDDWWWDDLDDDLLLWWLWWDWWLWLLWDLDWLWWL
Farul ConstantaDWWWLLLWLDDLDWWWDLLDLDWWLLWLLLWDLLL
League goals
| Metric | Uta Arad | Farul Constanta | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 31 | 19 | 50 | 30 | 14 | 44 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 26 | 24 | 50 | 21 | 22 | 43 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Uta Arad | Farul Constanta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 74% | 83% | 74% | 83% |
| 1.5 | 46% | 37% | 37% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 14% | 11% | 9% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 9% | 3% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Uta Arad | Farul Constanta | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Uta Arad | Farul Constanta |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 6 | 100.00% | 8 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 6 | 8 |
Streaks
| Metric | Uta Arad | Farul Constanta |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 1-3 | 4-1 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 4-0 | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Uta Arad | Farul Constanta |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 69% | 31% |
| Att | 69% | 31% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 59% | 41% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 44% | 56% |
| Total | 58.8% | 41.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.10 @ Betfair
Draw3.72 @ Pinnacle
Away3.50 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.91 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.93 @ Betano
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.75 @ Betano
No2.05 @ BetVictor
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League standings
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