Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:30 •
Victoria Stadium
Expected Goals
1.37 (league 1.67)
1.27 (league 1.77)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 38.9% | 26.1% | 34.5% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.4%
1 - 0
9.8%
0 - 1
9.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Mons Calpe | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Europa | 0 | 7.2% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 9.8% | 12.4% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 6.7% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 3.0% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Europa carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 30 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Europa +17.5, Mons Calpe +8.3.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Europa
vs
Mons Calpe
Elo gapEuropa +30
Home / draw / away40% / 27% / 33%
Expected home share54%
Combined Elo3146.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3146.3
Elo home share
54%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Europa | Mons Calpe |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1570.5 | 1575.8 |
| Form Elo | 1581.5 | 1596.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1534.9 | 1557.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1575 | 1625 |
| Defense Elo | 1593.7 | 1525.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +17.5 | +8.3 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Europa last-5 Elo change: +17.5; Mons Calpe last-5 Elo change: +8.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Europa | Mons Calpe |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 80% |
| Attack | 73% | 80% |
| Defense | 80% | 53% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 12 | 2.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
93%
FT probability
2.5+
65%
FT probability
3.5+
46%
FT probability
BTTS
70%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Europa | Mons Calpe | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 13 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 26 |
| Wins | 62% | 69% | 65% | 54% | 77% | 65% |
| Draws | 15% | 0% | 8% | 15% | 0% | 8% |
| Loses | 23% | 31% | 27% | 31% | 23% | 27% |
EuropaWLWWWLWWWLLWWWWLLWWDWWWWDL
Mons CalpeWLDWWWLWWLWWWLLWDWWWLWWLWW
League goals
| Metric | Europa | Mons Calpe | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 25 | 24 | 49 | 25 | 37 | 62 |
| GF avg | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.4 |
| GA total | 11 | 9 | 20 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Europa | Mons Calpe | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 77% | 50% | 81% | 69% |
| 1.5 | 54% | 23% | 65% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 31% | 4% | 46% | 12% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 0% | 27% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 12% | 0% | 15% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Europa | Mons Calpe | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Europa | Mons Calpe |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Europa | Mons Calpe |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-0 | 0-5 | 6-0 | 0-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-1 | 0-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Europa | Mons Calpe |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 45% | 55% |
| Att | 48% | 52% |
| Def | 70% | 30% |
| Poisson Distribution | 50% | 50% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 62% | 38% |
| Total | 57.7% | 42.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…