Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 10:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
2.76 (league 1.63)
3.65 (league 1.65)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 23.6% | 14.8% | 40.2% |
best score tips
2 - 3
5.1%
3 - 3
4.7%
2 - 4
4.6%
Score & goals probability table
| New Lambton | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Toronto Awaba Stags | 0 | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.4% | |
| 2 | 0.6% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.4% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.1% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Toronto Awaba Stags carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 207 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Toronto Awaba Stags -7.7, New Lambton +26.5.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Toronto Awaba Stags
vs
New Lambton
Elo gapToronto Awaba Stags +207
Home / draw / away63% / 18% / 19%
Expected home share77%
Combined Elo2919
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2919
Elo home share
77%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Toronto Awaba Stags | New Lambton |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1545.3 | 1373.7 |
| Form Elo | 1541.3 | 1402.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1515.9 | 1456.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1609.8 | 1407.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1561.3 | 1288.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -7.7 | +26.5 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Toronto Awaba Stags last-5 Elo change: -7.7; New Lambton last-5 Elo change: +26.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Toronto Awaba Stags | New Lambton |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 53% |
| Attack | 33% | 44% |
| Defense | 44% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
5.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
80%
FT probability
3.5+
57%
FT probability
BTTS
84%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Toronto Awaba Stags | New Lambton | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Wins | 50% | 0% | 20% | 25% | 100% | 40% |
| Draws | 0% | 33% | 20% | 50% | 0% | 40% |
| Loses | 50% | 67% | 60% | 25% | 0% | 20% |
Toronto Awaba StagsLWLDL
New LambtonLDWWD
League goals
| Metric | Toronto Awaba Stags | New Lambton | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 3 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Toronto Awaba Stags | New Lambton | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 60% | 80% | 80% | 60% |
| 1.5 | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 20% | 20% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 20% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Toronto Awaba Stags | New Lambton | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Toronto Awaba Stags | New Lambton |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Toronto Awaba Stags | New Lambton |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | — | 2-0 | 3-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 6-3 | 1-2 | — |
| Goals For | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 6 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Toronto Awaba Stags | New Lambton |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 43% | 57% |
| Def | 38% | 63% |
| Poisson Distribution | 45% | 55% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 39.8% | 60.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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