Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 18:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.89 (league 1.32)
1.78 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 40.2% | 21.7% | 35.9% |
best score tips
1 - 1
8.6%
2 - 1
8.1%
1 - 2
7.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Crateús | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Itapipoca | 0 | 2.5% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 4.7% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 4.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 2.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Itapipoca carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 75 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Itapipoca +22.8, Crateús -4.1.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Itapipoca
vs
Crateús
Elo gapItapipoca +75
Home / draw / away48% / 21% / 31%
Expected home share61%
Combined Elo3097.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3097.3
Elo home share
61%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Itapipoca | Crateús |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1568.6 | 1528.7 |
| Form Elo | 1588.4 | 1524.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1535.6 | 1511.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1561.9 | 1492.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1530.2 | 1567.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +22.8 | -4.1 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Itapipoca last-5 Elo change: +22.8; Crateús last-5 Elo change: -4.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Itapipoca | Crateús |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 80% | 47% |
| Attack | 91% | 64% |
| Defense | 36% | 73% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
85%
FT probability
2.5+
60%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Itapipoca | Crateús | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Wins | 100% | 67% | 80% | 33% | 50% | 40% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 0% | 20% |
| Loses | 0% | 33% | 20% | 33% | 50% | 40% |
ItapipocaWWLWW
CrateúsWLDLW
League goals
| Metric | Itapipoca | Crateús | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| GF avg | 2.5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 2 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Itapipoca | Crateús | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 60% | 40% | 60% |
| 1.5 | 60% | 60% | 40% | 0% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 20% | 40% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 20% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Itapipoca | Crateús | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Itapipoca | Crateús |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Itapipoca | Crateús |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 2-3 | 3-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Itapipoca | Crateús |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 63% | 37% |
| Att | 59% | 41% |
| Def | 30% | 70% |
| Poisson Distribution | 49% | 51% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 80% | 20% |
| Total | 56.2% | 43.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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