Cearense - 2
— Brazil
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 20:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
0.76 (league 1.32)
0.44 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 39.3% | 41.1% | 19.6% |
best score tips
0 - 0
30.0%
1 - 0
22.8%
0 - 1
13.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Cariri | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Icasa | 0 | 29.7% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 22.8% | 10.2% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 8.8% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Icasa carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 146 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Icasa +31.5, Cariri -15.1.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Icasa
vs
Cariri
Elo gapIcasa +146
Home / draw / away57% / 18% / 25%
Expected home share70%
Combined Elo2986.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2986.7
Elo home share
70%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Icasa | Cariri |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1548.9 | 1437.8 |
| Form Elo | 1584.7 | 1423.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1513.3 | 1472.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1585.1 | 1450.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1544.4 | 1458.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +31.5 | -15.1 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Icasa last-5 Elo change: +31.5; Cariri last-5 Elo change: -15.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Icasa | Cariri |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 4 | 5 |
| Form | 83% | 27% |
| Attack | 82% | 45% |
| Defense | 73% | 45% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 2.3 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
56%
FT probability
2.5+
39%
FT probability
3.5+
28%
FT probability
BTTS
57%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Icasa | Cariri | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Wins | 50% | 100% | 75% | 33% | 0% | 20% |
| Draws | 50% | 0% | 25% | 0% | 50% | 20% |
| Loses | 0% | 0% | 0% | 67% | 50% | 60% |
IcasaWWDW
CaririDLLWL
League goals
| Metric | Icasa | Cariri | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| GA avg | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Icasa | Cariri | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 75% | 40% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 0% | 20% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 0% | 20% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 0% | 20% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Icasa | Cariri | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Icasa | Cariri |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Icasa | Cariri |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 0 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 1-0 | 1-5 | 4-1 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | — | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Icasa | Cariri |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 71% | 29% |
| Att | 64% | 36% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 100% | 0% |
| H2h | 64% | 36% |
| Goals | 57% | 43% |
| Total | 64.6% | 35.4% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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