Cearense - 2
— Brazil
Sat, May 2 2026 • 19:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
3.85 (league 1.30)
4.51 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 19.1% | 11.8% | 25.6% |
best score tips
3 - 4
3.8%
4 - 4
3.7%
3 - 5
3.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Guarany de Sobral | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Caucaia | 0 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.5% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.3% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Caucaia +4.7, Guarany de Sobral -2.7.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Caucaia
vs
Guarany de Sobral
Elo gapCaucaia +14
Home / draw / away37% / 28% / 35%
Expected home share52%
Combined Elo2968.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2968.8
Elo home share
52%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Caucaia | Guarany de Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1474 | 1494.8 |
| Form Elo | 1477.2 | 1495.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1483.7 | 1489.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1480.1 | 1460.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1448.5 | 1538.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +4.7 | -2.7 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Caucaia last-5 Elo change: +4.7; Guarany de Sobral last-5 Elo change: -2.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Caucaia | Guarany de Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 47% |
| Attack | 100% | 100% |
| Defense | 0% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
5.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
72%
FT probability
3.5+
51%
FT probability
BTTS
84%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Caucaia | Guarany de Sobral | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Wins | 50% | 33% | 40% | 67% | 0% | 40% |
| Draws | 0% | 33% | 20% | 0% | 50% | 20% |
| Loses | 50% | 33% | 40% | 33% | 50% | 40% |
CaucaiaLWWDL
Guarany de SobralDLWLW
League goals
| Metric | Caucaia | Guarany de Sobral | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 5 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| GA avg | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Caucaia | Guarany de Sobral | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 80% | 80% | 80% | 60% |
| 1.5 | 20% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 40% | 0% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 20% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Caucaia | Guarany de Sobral | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Caucaia | Guarany de Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Caucaia | Guarany de Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 3-0 | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Goals For | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Caucaia | Guarany de Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 40% | 60% |
| Poisson Distribution | 44% | 56% |
| H2h | 64% | 36% |
| Goals | 71% | 29% |
| Total | 53.2% | 46.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…