Cearense - 2
— Brazil
Sat, May 2 2026 • 20:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
0.66 (league 1.30)
0.59 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 31.6% | 41.1% | 27.3% |
best score tips
0 - 0
28.9%
1 - 0
18.9%
0 - 1
16.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Crato | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Cariri | 0 | 28.9% | 16.9% | 5.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 3.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Crato carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 33 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Cariri -2.3, Crato +17.6.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Cariri
vs
Crato
Elo gapCrato +33
Home / draw / away33% / 26% / 41%
Expected home share45%
Combined Elo2975.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2975.4
Elo home share
45%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Cariri | Crato |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1453.7 | 1521.7 |
| Form Elo | 1458.1 | 1540.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1483.2 | 1497.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1450.9 | 1489.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1472.8 | 1552.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -2.3 | +17.6 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Cariri last-5 Elo change: -2.3; Crato last-5 Elo change: +17.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Cariri | Crato |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 73% |
| Attack | 100% | 100% |
| Defense | 0% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
51%
FT probability
2.5+
36%
FT probability
3.5+
26%
FT probability
BTTS
56%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Cariri | Crato | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Wins | 33% | 33% | 33% | 100% | 0% | 60% |
| Draws | 0% | 33% | 17% | 0% | 100% | 40% |
| Loses | 67% | 33% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
CaririDLLWLW
CratoDWWDW
League goals
| Metric | Cariri | Crato | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Cariri | Crato | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 50% | 67% | 80% | 20% |
| 1.5 | 17% | 33% | 20% | 0% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Cariri | Crato | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Cariri | Crato |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Cariri | Crato |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 0-1 | 2-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 2-0 | — | — |
| Goals For | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Cariri | Crato |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 35% | 65% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 25% | 75% |
| Poisson Distribution | 50% | 50% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 40.0% | 60.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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