Premier League
— Egypt
Mon, Apr 27 2026 • 14:00 •
Suez Stadium
Expected Goals
0.92 (league 1.09)
0.71 (league 1.01)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 38.3% | 34.7% | 27.0% |
best score tips
0 - 0
19.6%
1 - 0
17.9%
0 - 1
14.0%
Score & goals probability table
| AL Masry | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Smouha SC | 0 | 19.4% | 14.0% | 5.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 17.9% | 12.8% | 4.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 8.2% | 5.9% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
AL Masry carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 59 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Smouha SC -3.3, AL Masry -18.0.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Smouha SC
vs
AL Masry
Elo gapAL Masry +59
Home / draw / away32% / 23% / 45%
Expected home share42%
Combined Elo3070.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3070.3
Elo home share
42%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Smouha SC | AL Masry |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1488.1 | 1582.2 |
| Form Elo | 1482 | 1569.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1479.5 | 1517.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1407.5 | 1539.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1577.1 | 1585.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -3.3 | -18.0 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Smouha SC last-5 Elo change: -3.3; AL Masry last-5 Elo change: -18.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Smouha SC | AL Masry |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 33% |
| Attack | 50% | 43% |
| Defense | 50% | 43% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
58%
FT probability
2.5+
41%
FT probability
3.5+
29%
FT probability
BTTS
59%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Smouha SC | AL Masry | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 11 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 23 |
| Wins | 42% | 27% | 35% | 50% | 18% | 35% |
| Draws | 25% | 36% | 30% | 33% | 55% | 43% |
| Loses | 33% | 36% | 35% | 17% | 27% | 22% |
Smouha SCDDDWDLWDWDLDWWWLLLWWLLL
AL MasryWWDDWLWDLWDDWDDDWLWLLDD
League goals
| Metric | Smouha SC | AL Masry | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 12 | 10 | 22 | 23 | 10 | 33 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 9 | 10 | 19 | 16 | 11 | 27 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Smouha SC | AL Masry | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 57% | 70% | 78% | 65% |
| 1.5 | 30% | 13% | 43% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 0% | 17% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Smouha SC | AL Masry | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Smouha SC | AL Masry |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Smouha SC | AL Masry |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 1-3 | 4-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 2-1 | 1-4 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Smouha SC | AL Masry |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 55% | 45% |
| Att | 54% | 46% |
| Def | 53% | 47% |
| Poisson Distribution | 57% | 43% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 13% | 88% |
| Total | 43.5% | 56.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.33 @ Pinnacle
Draw2.90 @ Unibet
Away2.63 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.68 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.47 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.15 @ William Hill
No1.70 @ Betano
📊
League standings
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