Premier League
— Egypt
Fri, May 1 2026 • 17:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.56 (league 1.09)
0.45 (league 1.01)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 64.5% | 24.6% | 10.3% |
best score tips
1 - 0
21.0%
2 - 0
16.3%
0 - 0
13.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Al Ahly | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Zamalek SC | 0 | 13.4% | 6.0% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 16.3% | 7.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.5% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Zamalek SC carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 89 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Zamalek SC +11.7, Al Ahly -6.1.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Zamalek SC
vs
Al Ahly
Elo gapZamalek SC +89
Home / draw / away50% / 20% / 30%
Expected home share63%
Combined Elo3288
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3288
Elo home share
63%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Zamalek SC | Al Ahly |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1671.2 | 1616.8 |
| Form Elo | 1695.4 | 1617.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1571.3 | 1555.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1581.1 | 1620 |
| Defense Elo | 1700.6 | 1603.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +11.7 | -6.1 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Zamalek SC last-5 Elo change: +11.7; Al Ahly last-5 Elo change: -6.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Zamalek SC | Al Ahly |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 47% |
| Attack | 86% | 100% |
| Defense | 71% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Zamalek SC | Al Ahly | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 11 | 23 | 11 | 12 | 23 |
| Wins | 67% | 64% | 65% | 73% | 33% | 52% |
| Draws | 33% | 9% | 22% | 18% | 50% | 35% |
| Loses | 0% | 27% | 13% | 9% | 17% | 13% |
Zamalek SCWDWWLWWDLDDWWWWWWWWLWWD
Al AhlyDWDLDWWWWWDDWDWWWDWLDWL
League goals
| Metric | Zamalek SC | Al Ahly | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 16 | 21 | 37 | 18 | 18 | 36 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 3 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 16 | 24 |
| GA avg | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Zamalek SC | Al Ahly | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 87% | 48% | 83% | 74% |
| 1.5 | 43% | 13% | 43% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 0% | 22% | 4% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 0% | 9% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Zamalek SC | Al Ahly | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 9 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Zamalek SC | Al Ahly |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Zamalek SC | Al Ahly |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 8 | 5 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 2-5 | 4-1 | 2-4 |
| Biggest losses | — | 2-1 | 0-2 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Zamalek SC | Al Ahly |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 59% | 41% |
| Att | 46% | 54% |
| Def | 80% | 20% |
| Poisson Distribution | 81% | 19% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 59.0% | 41.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home4.05 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.25 @ Betfair
Away2.17 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.30 @ 10Bet
Under 2.51.60 @ Betano
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.00 @ William Hill
No1.77 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
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