Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 08:00 •
Stadionul Comunal Afumati
Expected Goals
1.32 (league 1.50)
0.90 (league 1.16)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 46.3% | 28.1% | 25.3% |
best score tips
1 - 0
14.4%
1 - 1
12.9%
0 - 0
10.9%
Score & goals probability table
| CSM Satu Mare | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| CS Afumati | 0 | 10.9% | 9.7% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 14.4% | 12.9% | 5.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 9.5% | 8.5% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 4.2% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
CS Afumati carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 43 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: CS Afumati +6.3, CSM Satu Mare +42.7.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
CS Afumati
vs
CSM Satu Mare
Elo gapCS Afumati +43
Home / draw / away42% / 25% / 33%
Expected home share56%
Combined Elo3009.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3009.5
Elo home share
56%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | CS Afumati | CSM Satu Mare |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1508.6 | 1500.9 |
| Form Elo | 1504.5 | 1517.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1459.6 | 1512.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1572.3 | 1593 |
| Defense Elo | 1531.7 | 1450.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +6.3 | +42.7 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. CS Afumati last-5 Elo change: +6.3; CSM Satu Mare last-5 Elo change: +42.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | CS Afumati | CSM Satu Mare |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 80% |
| Attack | 53% | 80% |
| Defense | 60% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 12 | 2.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
77%
FT probability
2.5+
54%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | CS Afumati | CSM Satu Mare | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 12 | 25 | 12 | 13 | 25 |
| Wins | 31% | 50% | 40% | 33% | 23% | 28% |
| Draws | 15% | 17% | 16% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| Loses | 54% | 33% | 44% | 58% | 69% | 64% |
CS AfumatiWDLWLWWLDLLWWDLWLLWLWLWDL
CSM Satu MareLLLLLLDWLLLLLWLLWLDLWLWWW
League goals
| Metric | CS Afumati | CSM Satu Mare | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 14 | 22 | 36 | 19 | 10 | 29 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 17 | 14 | 31 | 26 | 24 | 50 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | CS Afumati | CSM Satu Mare | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 76% | 72% | 68% | 84% |
| 1.5 | 48% | 40% | 32% | 52% |
| 2.5 | 16% | 12% | 12% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 0% | 4% | 28% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | CS Afumati | CSM Satu Mare | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | CS Afumati | CSM Satu Mare |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | CS Afumati | CSM Satu Mare |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 6 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 0-4 | 4-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-1 | 1-4 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | CS Afumati | CSM Satu Mare |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 37% | 63% |
| Att | 40% | 60% |
| Def | 45% | 55% |
| Poisson Distribution | 59% | 41% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 42.8% | 57.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.25 @ Betano
Draw3.70 @ Pinnacle
Away3.60 @ 10Bet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.89 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.93 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.70 @ Unibet
No2.10 @ William Hill
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League standings
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