Tarxien Rainbows vs Birkirkara

Premier League — Malta

Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 16:00 • Tony Bezzina Stadium

Not Started

home	draw	away
36.9%	28.3%	34.5%

		Birkirkara
Tarxien Rainbows	0	9.9%	11.2%	6.4%	2.4%	0.7%	0.2%
1	11.6%	13.2%	7.5%	2.8%	0.8%	0.2%
2	6.9%	7.8%	4.4%	1.7%	0.5%	0.1%
3	2.7%	3.1%	1.7%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%
4	0.8%	0.9%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
5	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Away edge

Birkirkara carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 58 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Tarxien Rainbows +5.5, Birkirkara -5.2.

Medium confidence Upset risk: Medium Elo standalone

Tarxien Rainbows Elo 1417 · +5.5

Birkirkara Elo 1509.8 · -5.2

Elo gapBirkirkara +58

Home / draw / away32% / 23% / 45%

Expected home share42%

Combined Elo2926.8

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Away edge

Confidence band Medium confidence

Upset risk Medium

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 2926.8

Elo home share 42%

Match tone Tactical Watch

Metric	Tarxien Rainbows	Birkirkara
Overall Elo	1417	1509.8
Form Elo	1423.2	1504
Home / Away Elo	1453.8	1458.4
Attack Elo	1467.5	1468.8
Defense Elo	1411.1	1578.3
Last 5 Elo change	+5.5	-5.2

The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Tarxien Rainbows last-5 Elo change: +5.5; Birkirkara last-5 Elo change: -5.2.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Tarxien Rainbows	Birkirkara
Played	5	5
Form	40%	33%
Attack	56%	17%
Defense	39%	67%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	10 \| 2	3 \| 0.6
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	11 \| 2.2	6 \| 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

72%

FT probability

2.5+

51%

FT probability

3.5+

36%

FT probability

BTTS

64%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

2-4

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Tarxien Rainbows			Birkirkara
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	15	15	30	12	18	30
Wins	7%	13%	10%	50%	11%	27%
Draws	40%	20%	30%	25%	33%	30%
Loses	53%	67%	60%	25%	56%	43%

Tarxien RainbowsDLLWDLLLLLLDLLDLLLLLDLWLDLDDWD

BirkirkaraDDLDWWDWLWLLLLLLWLLWWDDLDLDWLD

League goals

Metric	Tarxien Rainbows			Birkirkara
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	16	14	30	16	12	28
GF avg	1.1	0.9	1.0	1.3	0.7	0.9
GA total	28	29	57	9	26	35
GA avg	1.9	1.9	1.9	0.8	1.4	1.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Tarxien Rainbows		Birkirkara
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	70%	97%	50%	53%
1.5	20%	63%	23%	43%
2.5	10%	20%	10%	10%
3.5	0%	7%	7%	3%
4.5	0%	3%	3%	3%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Tarxien Rainbows			Birkirkara
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	0	1	1	7	7	14
Failed to score	4	5	9	4	11	15

Penalties

Metric	Tarxien Rainbows	Birkirkara
Scored (total \| %)	2 \| 100.00%	2 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	2	2

Streaks

Metric	Tarxien Rainbows	Birkirkara
Wins	1	2
Draws	2	2
Losses	6	6

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	3-2	2-3	5-0	0-4
Biggest losses	0-4	5-0	0-3	6-1
Goals For	3	3	5	4
Goals Against	4	5	3	6

Model comparison

Metric	Tarxien Rainbows	Birkirkara
Form	55%	45%
Att	77%	23%
Def	35%	65%
Poisson Distribution	49%	51%
H2h	7%	93%
Goals	0%	100%
Total	44.6%	55.4%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.25 @ Bet365

Draw3.30 @ Betfair

Away2.22 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.95 @ Bet365

Under 2.51.85 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.80 @ Betfair

No1.96 @ 1xBet

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Venue page • Tarxien Rainbows vs Birkirkara

Metric	Tarxien Rainbows	Birkirkara
Scored (total \| %)	2 \| 100.00%	2 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	2	2

Tarxien Rainbows vs Birkirkara