Premier League
— Malta
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
0.98 (league 1.31)
0.92 (league 1.17)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 35.6% | 31.8% | 32.5% |
best score tips
0 - 0
14.9%
1 - 0
14.6%
0 - 1
13.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Hamrun Spartans | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Floriana | 0 | 14.8% | 13.7% | 6.3% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 14.6% | 13.5% | 6.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 7.2% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Floriana carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 129 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Floriana +37.5, Hamrun Spartans -22.6.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Floriana
vs
Hamrun Spartans
Elo gapFloriana +129
Home / draw / away56% / 18% / 26%
Expected home share68%
Combined Elo3269.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3269.1
Elo home share
68%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Floriana | Hamrun Spartans |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1681.4 | 1587.7 |
| Form Elo | 1708.4 | 1583.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1560.9 | 1512.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1608.1 | 1602.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1662.5 | 1670.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +37.5 | -22.6 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Floriana last-5 Elo change: +37.5; Hamrun Spartans last-5 Elo change: -22.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Floriana | Hamrun Spartans |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 87% | 40% |
| Attack | 56% | 56% |
| Defense | 81% | 63% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
65%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
62%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Floriana | Hamrun Spartans | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 17 | 13 | 30 | 17 | 13 | 30 |
| Wins | 59% | 77% | 67% | 65% | 46% | 57% |
| Draws | 24% | 23% | 23% | 24% | 31% | 27% |
| Loses | 18% | 0% | 10% | 12% | 23% | 17% |
FlorianaWWDLWWWWWLDWWWLDWWWDWWDWDWDWWW
Hamrun SpartansDDWWDWWLDWWWLWWWWDWDWDWWDWLLLW
League goals
| Metric | Floriana | Hamrun Spartans | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 28 | 21 | 49 | 31 | 16 | 47 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 16 | 7 | 23 | 8 | 10 | 18 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Floriana | Hamrun Spartans | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 83% | 57% | 80% | 40% |
| 1.5 | 57% | 17% | 47% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 3% | 17% | 7% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 0% | 7% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Floriana | Hamrun Spartans | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 7 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 18 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Floriana | Hamrun Spartans |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Floriana | Hamrun Spartans |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 4 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 0-3 | 6-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | — | 1-3 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Floriana | Hamrun Spartans |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 68% | 32% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 46% | 54% |
| H2h | 25% | 75% |
| Goals | 25% | 75% |
| Total | 46.8% | 53.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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