Expected Goals
1.64 (league 1.40)
0.97 (league 1.40)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 52.4% | 24.6% | 22.3% |
best score tips
1 - 0
12.0%
1 - 1
11.7%
2 - 0
9.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Brøndby | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| AGF | 0 | 7.3% | 7.1% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 12.0% | 11.7% | 5.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 9.9% | 9.6% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 5.4% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: AGF -7.2, Brøndby +29.9.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
AGF
vs
Brøndby
Elo gapBrøndby +16
Home / draw / away34% / 28% / 38%
Expected home share48%
Combined Elo3046.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3046.5
Elo home share
48%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | AGF | Brøndby |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1497.8 | 1548.7 |
| Form Elo | 1507.4 | 1571.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1512.6 | 1522 |
| Attack Elo | 1530 | 1493 |
| Defense Elo | 1492.3 | 1595.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -7.2 | +29.9 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. AGF last-5 Elo change: -7.2; Brøndby last-5 Elo change: +29.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | AGF | Brøndby |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 73% |
| Attack | 50% | 44% |
| Defense | 56% | 88% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
76%
FT probability
2.5+
53%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
63%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | AGF | Brøndby | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 8 | 10 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 18 |
| Wins | 63% | 20% | 39% | 44% | 56% | 50% |
| Draws | 13% | 30% | 22% | 56% | 22% | 39% |
| Loses | 25% | 50% | 39% | 0% | 22% | 11% |
AGFDDLWLDWLWLWWWWDLLL
BrøndbyDDLWDWWDLWWDWDWDWW
League goals
| Metric | AGF | Brøndby | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 18 | 6 | 24 | 12 | 15 | 27 |
| GF avg | 2.3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 6 | 17 | 23 | 3 | 9 | 12 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | AGF | Brøndby | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 61% | 67% | 72% | 44% |
| 1.5 | 28% | 39% | 44% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 17% | 28% | 6% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 6% | 6% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | AGF | Brøndby | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | AGF | Brøndby |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | AGF | Brøndby |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-0 | 2-3 | 4-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 4-0 | — | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | AGF | Brøndby |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 27% | 73% |
| Att | 53% | 47% |
| Def | 22% | 78% |
| Poisson Distribution | 58% | 42% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 46.8% | 53.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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