Shakhter Karagandy vs Tobol 2

1. Division — Kazakhstan

Fri, May 1 2026 • 10:00 • Shakhter Stadion

Not Started

home	draw	away
41.6%	0.3%	0.0%

		Tobol 2
Shakhter Karagandy	0	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1	1.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	3.8%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	7.8%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	12.0%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	14.8%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Home strong edge

Shakhter Karagandy carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 162 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Shakhter Karagandy +19.7, Tobol 2 -29.1.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone

Shakhter Karagandy Elo 1597.5 · +19.7

Tobol 2 Elo 1470.9 · -29.1

Elo gapShakhter Karagandy +162

Home / draw / away59% / 18% / 23%

Expected home share72%

Combined Elo3068.4

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Home strong edge

Confidence band Strong confidence

Upset risk Low

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 3068.4

Elo home share 72%

Match tone Heavy Favorite

Metric	Shakhter Karagandy	Tobol 2
Overall Elo	1597.5	1470.9
Form Elo	1631.8	1422.1
Home / Away Elo	1553.8	1491.6
Attack Elo	1731.5	1481.9
Defense Elo	1556.1	1472.5
Last 5 Elo change	+19.7	-29.1

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Shakhter Karagandy last-5 Elo change: +19.7; Tobol 2 last-5 Elo change: -29.1.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Shakhter Karagandy	Tobol 2
Played	3	3
Form	78%	11%
Attack	63%	19%
Defense	100%	56%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	10 \| 3.3	3 \| 1
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	0 \| 0	7 \| 2.3

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.30

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.00

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%

FT probability

2.5+

68%

FT probability

3.5+

49%

FT probability

BTTS

57%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Shakhter Karagandy			Tobol 2
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	1	2	3	2	1	3
Wins	100%	50%	67%	0%	0%	0%
Draws	0%	50%	33%	50%	0%	33%
Loses	0%	0%	0%	50%	100%	67%

Shakhter KaragandyDWW

Tobol 2DLL

League goals

Metric	Shakhter Karagandy			Tobol 2
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	4	6	10	3	0	3
GF avg	4.0	3.0	3.3	1.5	0.0	1.0
GA total	0	0	0	4	3	7
GA avg	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	3.0	2.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Shakhter Karagandy		Tobol 2
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	67%	0%	67%	100%
1.5	67%	0%	33%	67%
2.5	67%	0%	0%	67%
3.5	67%	0%	0%	0%
4.5	33%	0%	0%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Shakhter Karagandy			Tobol 2
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	1	2	3	0	0	0
Failed to score	0	1	1	0	1	1

Penalties

Metric	Shakhter Karagandy	Tobol 2
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0

Streaks

Metric	Shakhter Karagandy	Tobol 2
Wins	0	0
Draws	1	1
Losses	0	0

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	4-0	0-6	—	—
Biggest losses	—	—	2-3	3-0
Goals For	4	6	2	0
Goals Against	0	0	3	3

Model comparison

Metric	Shakhter Karagandy	Tobol 2
Form	88%	13%
Att	77%	23%
Def	100%	0%
Poisson Distribution	100%	0%
H2h	0%	0%
Goals	0%	0%
Total	82.5%	18.0%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Venue page • Shakhter Karagandy vs Tobol 2

Metric	Shakhter Karagandy	Tobol 2
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0

Shakhter Karagandy vs Tobol 2