First League — Russia
Sun, Apr 5 2026 • 13:00 • Stadion Arsenal
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.78 (league 1.25) 1.24 (league 1.06)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
23.4% 29.5% 46.9%
best score tips
0 - 1
16.4%
0 - 0
13.2%
1 - 1
12.8%
Score & goals probability table
Fakel
0 1 2 3 4 5
Arsenal Tula 0 13.2% 16.4% 10.2% 4.2% 1.3% 0.3%
1 10.3% 12.8% 8.0% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3%
2 4.0% 5.0% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
3 1.1% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricArsenal TulaFakel
Played55
Form47%53%
Attack50%21%
Defense57%93%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.43 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.21 | 0.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

62%
FT probability

2.5+

44%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

66%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Arsenal Tula Fakel
HATHAT
Played131326131326
Wins23%38%31%77%54%65%
Draws54%31%42%23%15%19%
Loses23%31%27%0%31%15%

Form: Arsenal Tula: DDWDDWLWLLDLDDDLWWWDDDLLWW • Fakel: WWWWWWLDWLDDWWWLWWWWWWDLDW

League goals

Metric Arsenal Tula Fakel
HATHAT
GF total181836181432
GF avg1.41.41.41.41.11.2
GA total1615313912
GA avg1.21.21.20.20.70.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineArsenal TulaFakel
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.581%88%73%35%
1.542%31%31%12%
2.515%0%12%0%
3.50%0%8%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricArsenal TulaFakel
HATHAT
Clean sheets21311617
Failed to score235347

Penalties

MetricArsenal TulaFakel
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total43

Streaks

MetricArsenal TulaFakel
Wins36
Draws32
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-34-00-4
Biggest losses1-22-0—2-0
Goals For3344
Goals Against2222

Model comparison

MetricArsenal TulaFakel
Form47%53%
Att70%30%
Def14%86%
Poisson Distribution37%63%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total44.7%55.3%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Fakel and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.46 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.00 @ 188Bet
Away2.48 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.94 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.40 @ Superbet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.30 @ 188Bet
No1.61 @ 1xBet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Arsenal Tula = 0.78 (league 1.25), Fakel = 1.24 (league 1.06)

Fakel
0 1 2 3 4 5
Arsenal Tula 0 13.2% 16.4% 10.2% 4.2% 1.3% 0.3%
1 10.3% 12.8% 8.0% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3%
2 4.0% 5.0% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
3 1.1% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 23.4% · Draw 29.5% · Away win 46.9%

vtt 1 , vtd1