Mon, Apr 27 2026 • 15:10 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.78 (league 1.21)
1.02 (league 1.26)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 54.4% | 23.2% | 21.3% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.0%
1 - 0
10.8%
2 - 1
9.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Sohar | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Al Nasr | 0 | 6.1% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 10.8% | 11.0% | 5.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 9.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Al Nasr carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 144 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Al Nasr +25.0, Sohar -34.0.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Al Nasr
vs
Sohar
Elo gapAl Nasr +144
Home / draw / away57% / 18% / 25%
Expected home share70%
Combined Elo3119
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3119
Elo home share
70%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Al Nasr | Sohar |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1614.1 | 1504.9 |
| Form Elo | 1634.8 | 1487.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1558.7 | 1503.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1504 | 1450.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1638.9 | 1539.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +25.0 | -34.0 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Al Nasr last-5 Elo change: +25.0; Sohar last-5 Elo change: -34.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Al Nasr | Sohar |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 73% | 13% |
| Attack | 53% | 27% |
| Defense | 80% | 53% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Al Nasr | Sohar | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 10 | 11 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 21 |
| Wins | 90% | 45% | 67% | 45% | 40% | 43% |
| Draws | 0% | 36% | 19% | 27% | 20% | 24% |
| Loses | 10% | 18% | 14% | 27% | 40% | 33% |
Al NasrWWDLWWWLLWWWWWDWDWWWD
SoharWWLLWDWLWWWWDWDLLDDLL
League goals
| Metric | Al Nasr | Sohar | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 18 | 11 | 29 | 11 | 16 | 27 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 8 | 8 | 16 | 8 | 12 | 20 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Al Nasr | Sohar | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 76% | 52% | 86% | 62% |
| 1.5 | 38% | 19% | 29% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 14% | 5% | 10% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 0% | 5% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Al Nasr | Sohar | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Al Nasr | Sohar |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 2 | 66.67% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 33.33% |
| Total | 0 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Al Nasr | Sohar |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 4 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 2-4 | 2-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-0 | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Al Nasr | Sohar |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 85% | 15% |
| Att | 67% | 33% |
| Def | 70% | 30% |
| Poisson Distribution | 64% | 36% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 73% | 27% |
| Total | 71.7% | 28.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.15 @ 10Bet
Draw3.00 @ 10Bet
Away3.60 @ William Hill
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.42 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.55 @ 10Bet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.10 @ Bet365
No1.73 @ William Hill
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League standings
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