Mon, Apr 27 2026 • 21:30 •
Estadio Roberto Suazo Cordova
Expected Goals
1.69 (league 1.24)
1.52 (league 1.05)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 41.2% | 23.3% | 34.3% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.4%
2 - 1
8.8%
1 - 2
7.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Victoria | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Génesis | 0 | 4.0% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 6.7% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 5.7% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 3.3% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Génesis carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 81 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Génesis -1.2, Victoria -22.6.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Génesis
vs
Victoria
Elo gapGénesis +81
Home / draw / away48% / 21% / 31%
Expected home share61%
Combined Elo2848.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2848.3
Elo home share
61%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Génesis | Victoria |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1447.3 | 1401 |
| Form Elo | 1447.8 | 1382.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1467.1 | 1451.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1457.9 | 1443.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1435.7 | 1383.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -1.2 | -22.6 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Génesis last-5 Elo change: -1.2; Victoria last-5 Elo change: -22.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Génesis | Victoria |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 20% |
| Attack | 33% | 58% |
| Defense | 50% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 12 | 2.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
73%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Génesis | Victoria | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 19 | 18 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 37 |
| Wins | 21% | 22% | 22% | 32% | 11% | 22% |
| Draws | 32% | 22% | 27% | 11% | 22% | 16% |
| Loses | 47% | 56% | 51% | 58% | 67% | 62% |
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VictoriaLLLLLLWLLLDDLLLLWWWDDDDWLWLLLLLWLLLLW
League goals
| Metric | Génesis | Victoria | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 24 | 44 | 29 | 18 | 47 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 31 | 30 | 61 | 41 | 34 | 75 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Génesis | Victoria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 70% | 86% | 65% | 97% |
| 1.5 | 30% | 51% | 46% | 62% |
| 2.5 | 8% | 19% | 11% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 5% | 5% | 5% | 11% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 3% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Génesis | Victoria | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 8 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 13 |
Penalties
| Metric | Génesis | Victoria |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Génesis | Victoria |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 4 |
| Losses | 3 | 6 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-2 | 2-4 | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-5 | 3-1 | 0-4 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Génesis | Victoria |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 36% | 64% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 52% | 48% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 53% | 47% |
| Total | 54.2% | 45.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.70 @ Bet365
Draw3.72 @ Marathonbet
Away4.12 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.67 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.15 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.61 @ Marathonbet
No2.13 @ 1xBet
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League standings
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