Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 20:00 •
Estadio Yankel Rosenthal
Expected Goals
3.23 (league 1.23)
0.57 (league 1.05)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 76.8% | 8.7% | 3.7% |
best score tips
3 - 0
12.5%
2 - 0
11.7%
4 - 0
10.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Atlético Choloma | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| CD Marathon | 0 | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 7.2% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.7% | 6.7% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 12.5% | 7.2% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 10.1% | 5.8% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 6.5% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
CD Marathon carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 189 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: CD Marathon -22.3, Atlético Choloma -1.3.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
CD Marathon
vs
Atlético Choloma
Elo gapCD Marathon +189
Home / draw / away61% / 18% / 21%
Expected home share75%
Combined Elo3011.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3011.6
Elo home share
75%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | CD Marathon | Atlético Choloma |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1582.7 | 1428.9 |
| Form Elo | 1573 | 1431.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1565.9 | 1467.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1557.7 | 1483 |
| Defense Elo | 1656.4 | 1358.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -22.3 | -1.3 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. CD Marathon last-5 Elo change: -22.3; Atlético Choloma last-5 Elo change: -1.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | CD Marathon | Atlético Choloma |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Attack | 40% | 100% |
| Defense | 30% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
82%
FT probability
2.5+
58%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | CD Marathon | Atlético Choloma | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 22 | 23 | 45 | 20 | 18 | 38 |
| Wins | 68% | 30% | 49% | 30% | 11% | 21% |
| Draws | 18% | 43% | 31% | 20% | 17% | 18% |
| Loses | 14% | 26% | 20% | 50% | 72% | 61% |
CD MarathonWWLWDDWDWDDWDWWWWLWWWWDWDLDWDLDDDLWDWWWLLWLWL
Atlético CholomaLDLLWLLLWLLWLDLLLLLLLDDDLLWLLDDWLWLWWL
League goals
| Metric | CD Marathon | Atlético Choloma | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 39 | 37 | 76 | 25 | 18 | 43 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 14 | 25 | 39 | 44 | 40 | 84 |
| GA avg | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | CD Marathon | Atlético Choloma | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 82% | 53% | 63% | 92% |
| 1.5 | 51% | 27% | 32% | 61% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 7% | 8% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 0% | 5% | 16% |
| 4.5 | 2% | 0% | 5% | 5% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | CD Marathon | Atlético Choloma | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 13 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 14 |
Penalties
| Metric | CD Marathon | Atlético Choloma |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 13 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 13 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | CD Marathon | Atlético Choloma |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 7 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 7-0 | 0-4 | 5-1 | 2-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-1 | 2-7 | 6-2 |
| Goals For | 7 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | CD Marathon | Atlético Choloma |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Att | 27% | 73% |
| Def | 59% | 41% |
| Poisson Distribution | 85% | 15% |
| H2h | 75% | 25% |
| Goals | 86% | 14% |
| Total | 62.0% | 38.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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