Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 20:00 •
Estadio Juan Ramon Breve Vargas
Expected Goals
2.47 (league 1.23)
1.24 (league 1.05)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 60.3% | 18.1% | 17.4% |
best score tips
2 - 1
9.3%
3 - 1
7.6%
1 - 1
7.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Génesis | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Olancho | 0 | 2.4% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 6.0% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 7.5% | 9.3% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 6.1% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 3.8% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Olancho carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 120 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Olancho +46.8, Génesis -1.2.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Olancho
vs
Génesis
Elo gapOlancho +120
Home / draw / away55% / 18% / 27%
Expected home share67%
Combined Elo2979.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2979.7
Elo home share
67%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Olancho | Génesis |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1532.4 | 1447.3 |
| Form Elo | 1553 | 1447.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1529.9 | 1477.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1538.6 | 1457.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1550.9 | 1435.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +46.8 | -1.2 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Olancho last-5 Elo change: +46.8; Génesis last-5 Elo change: -1.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Olancho | Génesis |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 87% | 40% |
| Attack | 100% | 33% |
| Defense | 89% | 44% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.2 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
81%
FT probability
2.5+
57%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
77%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Olancho | Génesis | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 21 | 21 | 42 | 19 | 19 | 38 |
| Wins | 48% | 24% | 36% | 21% | 26% | 24% |
| Draws | 43% | 38% | 40% | 32% | 21% | 26% |
| Loses | 10% | 38% | 24% | 47% | 53% | 50% |
OlanchoLWDWWDDWDWDDLDLDLLDWLDWLLDDWWDLDWDWDLWWWWD
GénesisLWLLLWLDDDLLLDWWLLDDLLDDLDWLWDLLWLLWLW
League goals
| Metric | Olancho | Génesis | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 40 | 29 | 69 | 20 | 25 | 45 |
| GF avg | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 22 | 28 | 50 | 31 | 30 | 61 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Olancho | Génesis | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 83% | 76% | 71% | 84% |
| 1.5 | 43% | 33% | 29% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 24% | 7% | 8% | 18% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 2% | 5% | 5% |
| 4.5 | 2% | 0% | 3% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Olancho | Génesis | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Olancho | Génesis |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 6 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 6 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Olancho | Génesis |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-2 | 0-4 | 6-2 | 2-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 4-1 | 0-5 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 6 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Olancho | Génesis |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 68% | 32% |
| Att | 77% | 23% |
| Def | 83% | 17% |
| Poisson Distribution | 66% | 34% |
| H2h | 64% | 36% |
| Goals | 56% | 44% |
| Total | 69.0% | 31.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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