Tue, Apr 28 2026 • 22:00 •
Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos
Expected Goals
0.75 (league 1.33)
0.77 (league 0.91)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 31.2% | 36.4% | 32.4% |
best score tips
0 - 0
21.8%
0 - 1
16.8%
1 - 0
16.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Independiente Petrolero | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Botafogo | 0 | 21.8% | 16.8% | 6.5% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 16.4% | 12.6% | 4.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 6.2% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Botafogo carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 207 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Botafogo +8.8, Independiente Petrolero -8.1.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Botafogo
vs
Independiente Petrolero
Elo gapBotafogo +207
Home / draw / away63% / 18% / 19%
Expected home share77%
Combined Elo3039.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3039.4
Elo home share
77%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Botafogo | Independiente Petrolero |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1605.8 | 1433.6 |
| Form Elo | 1632.6 | 1397.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1559.1 | 1485.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1579.1 | 1528.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1621.8 | 1270.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +8.8 | -8.1 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Botafogo last-5 Elo change: +8.8; Independiente Petrolero last-5 Elo change: -8.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Botafogo | Independiente Petrolero |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 2 | 3 |
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Attack | 31% | 15% |
| Defense | 77% | 69% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.7 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 1.5 | 4 | 1.3 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
61%
FT probability
2.5+
43%
FT probability
3.5+
30%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Botafogo | Independiente Petrolero | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Wins | 0% | 100% | 50% | 50% | 0% | 33% |
| Draws | 100% | 0% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 0% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 100% | 67% |
BotafogoDW
Independiente PetroleroWLL
League goals
| Metric | Botafogo | Independiente Petrolero | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| GA total | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Botafogo | Independiente Petrolero | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 50% | 0% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Botafogo | Independiente Petrolero | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Botafogo | Independiente Petrolero |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Botafogo | Independiente Petrolero |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | 2-3 | 1-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | — | 1-3 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Botafogo | Independiente Petrolero |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 57% | 43% |
| Att | 67% | 33% |
| Def | 57% | 43% |
| Poisson Distribution | 100% | 0% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 60.3% | 39.7% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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