CONMEBOL Libertadores — World
Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 02:00 • Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro
Not Started

Deportes Tolima

—

Coquimbo Unido

Expected Goals
0.38 (league 1.32) 0.64 (league 0.93)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
18.5% 45.3% 36.2%
best score tips
0 - 0
36.0%
0 - 1
23.2%
1 - 0
13.6%
Score & goals probability table
Coquimbo Unido
0 1 2 3 4 5
Deportes Tolima 0 35.8% 23.0% 7.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0%
1 13.7% 8.8% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
2 2.6% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Away edge

Coquimbo Unido carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 83 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Deportes Tolima -20.7, Coquimbo Unido +11.5.

Medium confidence Upset risk: Medium Elo standalone
Deportes Tolima Elo 1541.8 · -20.7
vs
Coquimbo Unido Elo 1659.8 · +11.5
Elo gapCoquimbo Unido +83
Home / draw / away30% / 21% / 49%
Expected home share38%
Combined Elo3201.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Away edge
Confidence band Medium confidence
Upset risk Medium
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3201.6
Elo home share 38%
Match tone Upset Watch
Metric Deportes Tolima Coquimbo Unido
Overall Elo1541.81659.8
Form Elo1533.81692.1
Home / Away Elo1536.51595.4
Attack Elo1483.51573.9
Defense Elo16211655.2
Last 5 Elo change-20.7+11.5

The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Deportes Tolima last-5 Elo change: -20.7; Coquimbo Unido last-5 Elo change: +11.5.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricDeportes TolimaCoquimbo Unido
Played52
Form33%67%
Attack25%19%
Defense69%94%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.83 | 1.5
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 11 | 0.5

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

49%
FT probability

2.5+

35%
FT probability

3.5+

25%
FT probability

BTTS

54%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2-3
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Deportes Tolima Coquimbo Unido
HATHAT
Played336112
Wins33%33%33%0%100%50%
Draws67%0%33%100%0%50%
Loses0%67%33%0%0%0%
Deportes TolimaWDLWDL
Coquimbo UnidoDW

League goals

Metric Deportes Tolima Coquimbo Unido
HATHAT
GF total325123
GF avg1.00.70.81.02.01.5
GA total145101
GA avg0.31.30.81.00.00.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineDeportes TolimaCoquimbo Unido
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%50%100%50%
1.517%17%50%0%
2.50%17%0%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricDeportes TolimaCoquimbo Unido
HATHAT
Clean sheets213011
Failed to score112000

Penalties

MetricDeportes TolimaCoquimbo Unido
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricDeportes TolimaCoquimbo Unido
Wins10
Draws11
Losses10

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-1—0-2
Biggest losses—3-1——
Goals For2112
Goals Against1310

Model comparison

MetricDeportes TolimaCoquimbo Unido
Form56%44%
Att57%43%
Def17%83%
Poisson Distribution0%100%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total43.3%56.7%
💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.07 @ Dafabet
Draw3.20 @ Bet365
Away4.50 @ Bet365

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.60 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.54 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.20 @ Bet365
No1.67 @ 10Bet
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League standings

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