Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 07:00 •
Len Shearer Reserve
Expected Goals
1.44 (league 1.73)
0.92 (league 1.63)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 48.8% | 26.7% | 24.1% |
best score tips
1 - 0
13.6%
1 - 1
12.5%
2 - 0
9.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Subiaco | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Murdoch Melville | 0 | 9.4% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13.6% | 12.5% | 5.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 9.8% | 9.0% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Murdoch Melville carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 100 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Murdoch Melville -13.6, Subiaco -19.1.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Murdoch Melville
vs
Subiaco
Elo gapMurdoch Melville +100
Home / draw / away52% / 19% / 29%
Expected home share64%
Combined Elo2964.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2964.6
Elo home share
64%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Murdoch Melville | Subiaco |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1514.6 | 1450 |
| Form Elo | 1495.2 | 1425.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1499.8 | 1498.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1653.4 | 1525.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1421.9 | 1378.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -13.6 | -19.1 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Murdoch Melville last-5 Elo change: -13.6; Subiaco last-5 Elo change: -19.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Murdoch Melville | Subiaco |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 4 | 4 |
| Form | 25% | 25% |
| Attack | 24% | 29% |
| Defense | 71% | 52% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1.3 | 6 | 1.5 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.5 | 10 | 2.5 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
91%
FT probability
2.5+
64%
FT probability
3.5+
46%
FT probability
BTTS
83%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Murdoch Melville | Subiaco | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Wins | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 25% |
| Draws | 100% | 67% | 75% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 0% | 33% | 25% | 100% | 50% | 75% |
Murdoch MelvilleDDDL
SubiacoLWLL
League goals
| Metric | Murdoch Melville | Subiaco | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 1 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Murdoch Melville | Subiaco | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 100% | 75% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 25% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 25% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 50% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 25% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Murdoch Melville | Subiaco | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Murdoch Melville | Subiaco |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Murdoch Melville | Subiaco |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 1 |
| Draws | 3 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | — | — | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | — | 2-1 | 3-4 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Murdoch Melville | Subiaco |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 45% | 55% |
| Def | 63% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 63% | 38% |
| H2h | 20% | 80% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 45.7% | 54.7% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…