Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 18:45 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.44 (league 1.60)
1.13 (league 1.41)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 43.7% | 26.2% | 29.6% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.4%
1 - 0
11.0%
2 - 1
9.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Loughgall | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Newington Youth | 0 | 7.6% | 8.6% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 11.0% | 12.4% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 7.9% | 9.0% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 3.8% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Newington Youth carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 42 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Newington Youth -4.1, Loughgall -3.4.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Newington Youth
vs
Loughgall
Elo gapNewington Youth +42
Home / draw / away42% / 25% / 33%
Expected home share56%
Combined Elo3016.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3016.6
Elo home share
56%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Newington Youth | Loughgall |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1512 | 1504.6 |
| Form Elo | 1509.5 | 1500.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1532 | 1492.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1691.8 | 1451 |
| Defense Elo | 1371.5 | 1557.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -4.1 | -3.4 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Newington Youth last-5 Elo change: -4.1; Loughgall last-5 Elo change: -3.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Newington Youth | Loughgall |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 33% |
| Attack | 77% | 31% |
| Defense | 31% | 62% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
70%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Newington Youth | Loughgall | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 19 | 18 | 37 | 21 | 16 | 37 |
| Wins | 63% | 28% | 46% | 52% | 19% | 38% |
| Draws | 5% | 28% | 16% | 24% | 56% | 38% |
| Loses | 32% | 44% | 38% | 24% | 25% | 24% |
Newington YouthDLLLWDWWWLLWDWLDDWLWDWLLLWWWLWWLWWWLL
LoughgallWWDWDLDDDLDWDLDDWDWLWWWLWWDWWLLDLLDWD
League goals
| Metric | Newington Youth | Loughgall | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 44 | 31 | 75 | 33 | 16 | 49 |
| GF avg | 2.3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 30 | 31 | 61 | 20 | 16 | 36 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Newington Youth | Loughgall | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 89% | 68% | 78% | 68% |
| 1.5 | 65% | 51% | 41% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 27% | 30% | 11% | 5% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 11% | 3% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 5% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Newington Youth | Loughgall | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 4 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 12 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Newington Youth | Loughgall |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Newington Youth | Loughgall |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 2-4 | 4-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-5 | 3-2 | 1-3 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Newington Youth | Loughgall |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 64% | 36% |
| Att | 71% | 29% |
| Def | 36% | 64% |
| Poisson Distribution | 56% | 44% |
| H2h | 7% | 93% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 44.5% | 55.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.32 @ Betano
Draw3.70 @ Dafabet
Away2.65 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.53 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.38 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.50 @ Bet365
No2.62 @ 1xBet
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League standings
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