Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Clandeboye Park
Expected Goals
1.21 (league 1.49)
1.54 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 29.8% | 25.2% | 44.4% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.9%
0 - 1
9.8%
1 - 2
9.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Portadown | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Bangor | 0 | 6.4% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 7.8% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 4.7% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Bangor carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 35 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Bangor -1.0, Portadown -3.8.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Bangor
vs
Portadown
Elo gapBangor +35
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo2903.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2903.2
Elo home share
55%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Bangor | Portadown |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1451.7 | 1451.5 |
| Form Elo | 1437.9 | 1442.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1465.5 | 1453.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1492.4 | 1462.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1459 | 1435.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -1.0 | -3.8 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Bangor last-5 Elo change: -1.0; Portadown last-5 Elo change: -3.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Bangor | Portadown |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 40% |
| Attack | 18% | 36% |
| Defense | 64% | 36% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
80%
FT probability
2.5+
56%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Bangor | Portadown | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 19 | 18 | 37 | 18 | 19 | 37 |
| Wins | 32% | 22% | 27% | 39% | 26% | 32% |
| Draws | 16% | 33% | 24% | 17% | 11% | 14% |
| Loses | 53% | 44% | 49% | 44% | 63% | 54% |
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PortadownLWLLWLLLWWLWLLLDWLWWLWLLLLWWLLDLDDDLW
League goals
| Metric | Bangor | Portadown | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 18 | 21 | 39 | 18 | 22 | 40 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 31 | 30 | 61 | 26 | 38 | 64 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Bangor | Portadown | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 65% | 84% | 65% | 84% |
| 1.5 | 30% | 41% | 30% | 46% |
| 2.5 | 8% | 27% | 8% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 8% | 5% | 14% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Bangor | Portadown | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 8 | 5 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 13 |
Penalties
| Metric | Bangor | Portadown |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Bangor | Portadown |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 4 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 1-4 | 3-1 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 6-1 | 1-4 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Bangor | Portadown |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 64% | 36% |
| Poisson Distribution | 46% | 54% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 48.8% | 51.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.63 @ Unibet
Draw3.57 @ Pinnacle
Away2.74 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.85 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.07 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.73 @ Bet365
No2.21 @ 1xBet
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League standings
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