Lugansk vs Kyzyltash

Second League - Group 1 — Russia

Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 12:00 • Venue TBA

Not Started

Lugansk

—

Kyzyltash

Expected Goals

0.05 (league 1.34) 1.20 (league 1.04)

1x2 probabilities

home	draw	away
1.5%	30.5%	67.9%

best score tips

0 - 1

34.4%

0 - 0

28.7%

0 - 2

20.6%

Score & goals probability table

		Kyzyltash
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Lugansk	0	28.7%	34.4%	20.6%	8.2%	2.5%	0.6%
	1	1.4%	1.7%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
	2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
	3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
	4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

FootyWow Elo verdict

Balanced Elo outlook

Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Lugansk -15.3, Kyzyltash +32.1.

Thin confidence Upset risk: High Elo standalone

Lugansk Elo 1484.6 · -15.3

Kyzyltash Elo 1532.2 · +32.1

Elo gapKyzyltash +13

Home / draw / away34% / 29% / 37%

Expected home share48%

Combined Elo3016.8

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Balanced Elo outlook

Confidence band Thin confidence

Upset risk High

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 3016.8

Elo home share 48%

Match tone Good Watch

Metric	Lugansk	Kyzyltash
Overall Elo	1484.6	1532.2
Form Elo	1473	1566.6
Home / Away Elo	1492.1	1508.1
Attack Elo	1486	1509.2
Defense Elo	1479.1	1543.1
Last 5 Elo change	-15.3	+32.1

The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Lugansk last-5 Elo change: -15.3; Kyzyltash last-5 Elo change: +32.1.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Lugansk	Kyzyltash
Played	4	4
Form	17%	83%
Attack	43%	86%
Defense	0%	100%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	3 \| 0.8	6 \| 1.5
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	8 \| 2	0 \| 0

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

59%

FT probability

2.5+

42%

FT probability

3.5+

30%

FT probability

BTTS

56%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Lugansk			Kyzyltash
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	2	2	4	2	2	4
Wins	0%	0%	0%	100%	50%	75%
Draws	50%	50%	50%	0%	50%	25%
Loses	50%	50%	50%	0%	0%	0%

LuganskLLDD

KyzyltashWWDW

League goals

Metric	Lugansk			Kyzyltash
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	2	1	3	5	1	6
GF avg	1.0	0.5	0.8	2.5	0.5	1.5
GA total	5	3	8	0	0	0
GA avg	2.5	1.5	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Lugansk		Kyzyltash
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	75%	75%	75%	0%
1.5	0%	50%	50%	0%
2.5	0%	50%	25%	0%
3.5	0%	25%	0%	0%
4.5	0%	0%	0%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Lugansk			Kyzyltash
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	0	1	1	2	2	4
Failed to score	0	1	1	0	1	1

Penalties

Metric	Lugansk	Kyzyltash
Scored (total \| %)	2 \| 100.00%	1 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	2	1

Streaks

Metric	Lugansk	Kyzyltash
Wins	0	2
Draws	0	1
Losses	2	0

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	—	—	3-0	0-1
Biggest losses	1-4	3-1	—	—
Goals For	1	1	3	1
Goals Against	4	3	0	0

Model comparison

Metric	Lugansk	Kyzyltash
Form	17%	83%
Att	33%	67%
Def	0%	100%
Poisson Distribution	0%	100%
H2h	0%	0%
Goals	0%	0%
Total	25.0%	75.0%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

Loading standings…

League page • Country page • Lugansk vs Kyzyltash

Metric	Lugansk	Kyzyltash
Scored (total \| %)	2 \| 100.00%	1 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	2	1