Second League - Group 2 — Russia
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 12:00 • Baltika Stadium
Not Started

Baltika II

—

Luki-Energiya

Expected Goals
0.48 (league 1.56) 0.66 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
22.8% 43.0% 34.3%
best score tips
0 - 0
32.0%
0 - 1
21.1%
1 - 0
15.4%
Score & goals probability table
Luki-Energiya
0 1 2 3 4 5
Baltika II 0 32.0% 21.1% 6.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0%
1 15.4% 10.1% 3.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
2 3.7% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home strong edge

Baltika II carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 102 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Baltika II +19.2, Luki-Energiya +28.7.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
Baltika II Elo 1556.8 · +19.2
vs
Luki-Energiya Elo 1489.4 · +28.7
Elo gapBaltika II +102
Home / draw / away53% / 18% / 29%
Expected home share64%
Combined Elo3046.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3046.2
Elo home share 64%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric Baltika II Luki-Energiya
Overall Elo1556.81489.4
Form Elo1570.91524.7
Home / Away Elo1513.91490.4
Attack Elo1569.11459.9
Defense Elo1544.41563.8
Last 5 Elo change+19.2+28.7

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Baltika II last-5 Elo change: +19.2; Luki-Energiya last-5 Elo change: +28.7.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricBaltika IILuki-Energiya
Played44
Form75%67%
Attack38%54%
Defense85%85%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 1.37 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 0.52 | 0.5

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

54%
FT probability

2.5+

38%
FT probability

3.5+

27%
FT probability

BTTS

53%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

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Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Baltika II Luki-Energiya
HATHAT
Played224224
Wins100%50%75%50%50%50%
Draws0%0%0%50%50%50%
Loses0%50%25%0%0%0%
Baltika IIWWWL
Luki-EnergiyaDDWW

League goals

Metric Baltika II Luki-Energiya
HATHAT
GF total325437
GF avg1.51.01.32.01.51.8
GA total022112
GA avg0.01.00.50.50.50.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineBaltika IILuki-Energiya
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%25%75%50%
1.525%25%50%0%
2.50%0%50%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricBaltika IILuki-Energiya
HATHAT
Clean sheets213112
Failed to score000011

Penalties

MetricBaltika IILuki-Energiya
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricBaltika IILuki-Energiya
Wins30
Draws02
Losses00

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-13-01-3
Biggest losses—2-1——
Goals For2133
Goals Against0211

Model comparison

MetricBaltika IILuki-Energiya
Form53%47%
Att42%58%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution100%0%
H2h80%20%
Goals100%0%
Total56.3%43.8%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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