Second League - Group 3 — Russia
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:00 • Venue TBA
Not Started

Zenit Penza

—

Avangard Kursk

Expected Goals
1.13 (league 1.50) 0.30 (league 1.32)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
57.5% 32.7% 9.6%
best score tips
1 - 0
27.2%
0 - 0
24.0%
2 - 0
15.4%
Score & goals probability table
Avangard Kursk
0 1 2 3 4 5
Zenit Penza 0 24.0% 7.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 27.2% 8.0% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
2 15.4% 4.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 5.8% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home lean

Zenit Penza carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 31 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Zenit Penza -9.7, Avangard Kursk +4.1.

Lean confidence Upset risk: Medium-high Elo standalone
Zenit Penza Elo 1416.6 · -9.7
vs
Avangard Kursk Elo 1420.2 · +4.1
Elo gapZenit Penza +31
Home / draw / away40% / 26% / 34%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo2836.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home lean
Confidence band Lean confidence
Upset risk Medium-high
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 2836.8
Elo home share 55%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric Zenit Penza Avangard Kursk
Overall Elo1416.61420.2
Form Elo1403.11428
Home / Away Elo1481.51450.7
Attack Elo1419.71375.7
Defense Elo14661455.9
Last 5 Elo change-9.7+4.1

There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Zenit Penza last-5 Elo change: -9.7; Avangard Kursk last-5 Elo change: +4.1.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricZenit PenzaAvangard Kursk
Played44
Form33%42%
Attack37%5%
Defense63%84%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.81 | 0.3
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.83 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

62%
FT probability

2.5+

44%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

51%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

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Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Zenit Penza Avangard Kursk
HATHAT
Played314134
Wins33%0%25%100%0%25%
Draws33%0%25%0%67%50%
Loses33%100%50%0%33%25%
Zenit PenzaDWLL
Avangard KurskDLDW

League goals

Metric Zenit Penza Avangard Kursk
HATHAT
GF total527101
GF avg1.72.01.81.00.00.3
GA total437033
GA avg1.33.01.80.01.00.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineZenit PenzaAvangard Kursk
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%75%25%25%
1.575%75%0%25%
2.50%25%0%25%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricZenit PenzaAvangard Kursk
HATHAT
Clean sheets101123
Failed to score000033

Penalties

MetricZenit PenzaAvangard Kursk
Scored (total | %)2 | 66.67%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)1 | 33.33%0 | 0%
Total30

Streaks

MetricZenit PenzaAvangard Kursk
Wins10
Draws11
Losses01

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-0—1-0—
Biggest losses1-23-2—3-0
Goals For2210
Goals Against2303

Model comparison

MetricZenit PenzaAvangard Kursk
Form44%56%
Att88%13%
Def30%70%
Poisson Distribution100%0%
H2h50%50%
Goals38%63%
Total50.0%50.4%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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