Fri, May 1 2026 • 13:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.14 (league 1.49)
1.15 (league 1.31)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 35.5% | 28.5% | 35.8% |
best score tips
1 - 1
13.3%
0 - 1
11.6%
1 - 0
11.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Orel | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ryazan | 0 | 10.2% | 11.6% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 11.6% | 13.3% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 6.6% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Ryazan carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 100 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Ryazan +22.0, Orel +9.7.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Ryazan
vs
Orel
Elo gapRyazan +100
Home / draw / away52% / 19% / 29%
Expected home share64%
Combined Elo3055.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3055.7
Elo home share
64%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Ryazan | Orel |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1560.3 | 1495.4 |
| Form Elo | 1578.9 | 1502.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1512.6 | 1505.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1520.6 | 1561.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1538.8 | 1439.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +22.0 | +9.7 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Ryazan last-5 Elo change: +22.0; Orel last-5 Elo change: +9.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Ryazan | Orel |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 73% | 53% |
| Attack | 83% | 83% |
| Defense | 58% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
89%
FT probability
2.5+
62%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Ryazan | Orel | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Wins | 50% | 67% | 60% | 0% | 67% | 40% |
| Draws | 50% | 33% | 40% | 100% | 0% | 40% |
| Loses | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 20% |
RyazanWDWWD
OrelWLDWD
League goals
| Metric | Ryazan | Orel | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 2 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 10 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| GA avg | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Ryazan | Orel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 80% | 80% | 80% | 60% |
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% | 40% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 0% | 40% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 0% | 20% | 20% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 20% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Ryazan | Orel | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Ryazan | Orel |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Ryazan | Orel |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 0 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 1-4 | — | 1-5 |
| Biggest losses | — | — | — | 4-3 |
| Goals For | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Ryazan | Orel |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 58% | 42% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 55% | 45% |
| Poisson Distribution | 49% | 51% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 59.8% | 40.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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