Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 16:15 •
Cegeka Arena
Expected Goals
1.00 (league 1.43)
1.06 (league 1.24)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 33.3% | 30.3% | 36.3% |
best score tips
1 - 1
13.5%
0 - 1
13.5%
1 - 0
12.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Standard Liege | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Genk | 0 | 12.7% | 13.5% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 12.8% | 13.5% | 7.2% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 6.4% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Genk carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 114 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Genk +10.6, Standard Liege -3.3.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Genk
vs
Standard Liege
Elo gapGenk +114
Home / draw / away54% / 18% / 28%
Expected home share66%
Combined Elo3106.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3106.3
Elo home share
66%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Genk | Standard Liege |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1592.6 | 1513.7 |
| Form Elo | 1600.5 | 1523.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1506.7 | 1529.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1607.3 | 1424.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1507.9 | 1547 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +10.6 | -3.3 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Genk last-5 Elo change: +10.6; Standard Liege last-5 Elo change: -3.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Genk | Standard Liege |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 47% |
| Attack | 59% | 41% |
| Defense | 53% | 65% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Genk | Standard Liege | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 17 | 17 | 34 | 17 | 17 | 34 |
| Wins | 35% | 41% | 38% | 24% | 53% | 38% |
| Draws | 35% | 29% | 32% | 35% | 6% | 21% |
| Loses | 29% | 29% | 29% | 41% | 41% | 41% |
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Standard LiegeWDWLLLDWLLWLWLDWWLWLLLWLDWDWDDWLWL
League goals
| Metric | Genk | Standard Liege | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 22 | 29 | 51 | 16 | 18 | 34 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 21 | 29 | 50 | 22 | 19 | 41 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Genk | Standard Liege | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 85% | 85% | 65% | 71% |
| 1.5 | 44% | 38% | 26% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 15% | 12% | 9% | 15% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 6% | 0% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 6% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Genk | Standard Liege | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 12 |
Penalties
| Metric | Genk | Standard Liege |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 6 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 6 |
Streaks
| Metric | Genk | Standard Liege |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 2-3 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 3-0 | 0-4 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Genk | Standard Liege |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 56% | 44% |
| Att | 59% | 41% |
| Def | 43% | 57% |
| Poisson Distribution | 49% | 51% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 42% | 58% |
| Total | 49.8% | 50.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.72 @ Betano
Draw4.01 @ Pinnacle
Away5.20 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.89 @ SBO
Under 2.52.06 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.83 @ Betfair
No2.02 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
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