Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 16:30 •
Lotto Park
Expected Goals
1.01 (league 1.42)
0.86 (league 1.26)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 38.0% | 32.0% | 29.9% |
best score tips
1 - 0
15.6%
0 - 0
15.4%
1 - 1
13.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Union St. Gilloise | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Anderlecht | 0 | 15.5% | 13.2% | 5.7% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 15.6% | 13.4% | 5.7% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 7.9% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 139 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Anderlecht -7.2, Union St. Gilloise +27.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Anderlecht
vs
Union St. Gilloise
Elo gapUnion St. Gilloise +139
Home / draw / away25% / 18% / 57%
Expected home share31%
Combined Elo3249.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3249.2
Elo home share
31%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Anderlecht | Union St. Gilloise |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1537.5 | 1711.7 |
| Form Elo | 1539.5 | 1728.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1541.9 | 1595.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1575.6 | 1603.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1537.3 | 1739.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -7.2 | +27.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Anderlecht last-5 Elo change: -7.2; Union St. Gilloise last-5 Elo change: +27.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Anderlecht | Union St. Gilloise |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 87% |
| Attack | 60% | 47% |
| Defense | 27% | 87% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
69%
FT probability
2.5+
49%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
65%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Anderlecht | Union St. Gilloise | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 18 | 34 | 18 | 16 | 34 |
| Wins | 56% | 28% | 41% | 89% | 38% | 65% |
| Draws | 25% | 22% | 24% | 11% | 50% | 29% |
| Loses | 19% | 50% | 35% | 0% | 13% | 6% |
AnderlechtWWLWLDDWDWDLWWWWLWDLLDLLDWWDLLLWWL
Union St. GilloiseDWWWDWWWWLWWWDWLDDWDWDWWDWDWWWWWWD
League goals
| Metric | Anderlecht | Union St. Gilloise | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 28 | 22 | 50 | 35 | 19 | 54 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 15 | 32 | 47 | 6 | 12 | 18 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Anderlecht | Union St. Gilloise | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 71% | 71% | 82% | 50% |
| 1.5 | 47% | 44% | 50% | 3% |
| 2.5 | 15% | 15% | 18% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 9% | 6% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 6% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Anderlecht | Union St. Gilloise | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 17 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Anderlecht | Union St. Gilloise |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 6 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 6 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Anderlecht | Union St. Gilloise |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 6 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 2-4 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 2-3 | 4-0 | — | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Anderlecht | Union St. Gilloise |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 32% | 68% |
| Att | 56% | 44% |
| Def | 15% | 85% |
| Poisson Distribution | 51% | 49% |
| H2h | 20% | 80% |
| Goals | 13% | 88% |
| Total | 31.2% | 69.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home4.28 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.70 @ 1xBet
Away1.96 @ Dafabet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.98 @ SBO
Under 2.51.93 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.80 @ Bet365
No2.00 @ William Hill
📊
League standings
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