Cup — Cyprus
Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 15:00 • GSP Stadium
Not Started

Apoel Nicosia

—

Apollon Limassol

Expected Goals
1.77 (league 1.69) 2.14 (league 1.64)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
31.6% 20.7% 44.6%
best score tips
1 - 2
8.1%
1 - 1
7.6%
2 - 2
7.2%
Score & goals probability table
Apollon Limassol
0 1 2 3 4 5
Apoel Nicosia 0 2.0% 4.3% 4.6% 3.3% 1.7% 0.7%
1 3.6% 7.6% 8.1% 5.8% 3.1% 1.3%
2 3.2% 6.7% 7.2% 5.1% 2.7% 1.2%
3 1.9% 4.0% 4.2% 3.0% 1.6% 0.7%
4 0.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3%
5 0.3% 0.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Away edge

Apollon Limassol carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 58 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Apoel Nicosia +14.8, Apollon Limassol +38.6.

Medium confidence Upset risk: Medium Elo standalone
Apoel Nicosia Elo 1550.3 · +14.8
vs
Apollon Limassol Elo 1643.7 · +38.6
Elo gapApollon Limassol +58
Home / draw / away32% / 23% / 45%
Expected home share42%
Combined Elo3194
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Away edge
Confidence band Medium confidence
Upset risk Medium
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3194
Elo home share 42%
Match tone Upset Watch
Metric Apoel Nicosia Apollon Limassol
Overall Elo1550.31643.7
Form Elo1560.81684.3
Home / Away Elo1514.91541.7
Attack Elo1595.51599.2
Defense Elo1549.71582.2
Last 5 Elo change+14.8+38.6

The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Apoel Nicosia last-5 Elo change: +14.8; Apollon Limassol last-5 Elo change: +38.6.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricApoel NicosiaApollon Limassol
Played44
Form75%100%
Attack52%67%
Defense71%76%
Goals For (tot | avg)11 | 2.814 | 3.5
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.55 | 1.3

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

6.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

8.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

85%
FT probability

3.5+

67%
FT probability

BTTS

85%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1-1
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Apoel Nicosia Apollon Limassol
HATHAT
Played314314
Wins100%0%75%100%100%100%
Draws0%0%0%0%0%0%
Loses0%100%25%0%0%0%
Apoel NicosiaWWWL
Apollon LimassolWWWW

League goals

Metric Apoel Nicosia Apollon Limassol
HATHAT
GF total92119514
GF avg3.02.02.83.05.03.5
GA total246415
GA avg0.74.01.51.31.01.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineApoel NicosiaApollon Limassol
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%50%100%75%
1.575%50%100%50%
2.550%25%75%0%
3.525%25%50%0%
4.525%0%25%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricApoel NicosiaApollon Limassol
HATHAT
Clean sheets202101
Failed to score000000

Penalties

MetricApoel NicosiaApollon Limassol
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricApoel NicosiaApollon Limassol
Wins34
Draws00
Losses00

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-0—4-21-5
Biggest losses—4-2——
Goals For5245
Goals Against2421

Model comparison

MetricApoel NicosiaApollon Limassol
Form43%57%
Att44%56%
Def45%55%
Poisson Distribution47%53%
H2h20%80%
Goals42%58%
Total40.2%59.8%
💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.45 @ Betano
Draw3.30 @ Betano
Away2.80 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.88 @ Betano
Under 2.51.88 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.67 @ Betano
No2.07 @ Betano
📊

League standings

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