Thu, Apr 30 2026 • 00:30 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.91 (league 1.57)
1.36 (league 0.89)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 49.1% | 22.3% | 27.0% |
best score tips
1 - 1
9.9%
2 - 1
9.4%
1 - 0
7.3%
Score & goals probability table
| AO Itabaiana | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Piauí | 0 | 3.8% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 7.3% | 9.9% | 6.7% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 7.0% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 4.4% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 2.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Piauí carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 98 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Piauí -3.2, AO Itabaiana -25.6.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Piauí
vs
AO Itabaiana
Elo gapPiauí +98
Home / draw / away52% / 19% / 29%
Expected home share64%
Combined Elo3071.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3071.2
Elo home share
64%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Piauí | AO Itabaiana |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1566.9 | 1504.3 |
| Form Elo | 1553.2 | 1470.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1539.9 | 1492.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1512 | 1483.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1559.7 | 1532.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -3.2 | -25.6 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Piauí last-5 Elo change: -3.2; AO Itabaiana last-5 Elo change: -25.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Piauí | AO Itabaiana |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 4 | 4 |
| Form | 25% | 17% |
| Attack | 10% | 14% |
| Defense | 71% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.5 | 3 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.5 | 7 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
61%
FT probability
2.5+
43%
FT probability
3.5+
31%
FT probability
BTTS
51%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Piauí | AO Itabaiana | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Wins | 100% | 0% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 67% | 0% | 50% |
| Loses | 0% | 100% | 75% | 33% | 100% | 50% |
PiauíLWLL
AO ItabaianaDLLD
League goals
| Metric | Piauí | AO Itabaiana | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| GA avg | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 1.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Piauí | AO Itabaiana | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 50% | 75% | 25% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 0% | 50% | 25% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 25% | 25% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Piauí | AO Itabaiana | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Piauí | AO Itabaiana |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Piauí | AO Itabaiana |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 0 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 1-0 | — | — | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-1 | 0-1 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Goals Against | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Piauí | AO Itabaiana |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 40% | 60% |
| Def | 54% | 46% |
| Poisson Distribution | 100% | 0% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 51.3% | 48.7% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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