Thu, Apr 30 2026 • 00:30 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
0.64 (league 1.57)
2.03 (league 0.89)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5% | 19.2% | 68.4% |
best score tips
0 - 2
14.3%
0 - 1
14.1%
0 - 3
9.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Imperatriz | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Jacuipense | 0 | 6.9% | 14.1% | 14.3% | 9.7% | 4.9% | 2.0% |
| 1 | 4.4% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 1.3% | |
| 2 | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Jacuipense carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 40 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Jacuipense -20.3, Imperatriz -14.3.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Jacuipense
vs
Imperatriz
Elo gapJacuipense +40
Home / draw / away42% / 25% / 33%
Expected home share56%
Combined Elo3014
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3014
Elo home share
56%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Jacuipense | Imperatriz |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1509.5 | 1504.5 |
| Form Elo | 1480.3 | 1440.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1510.7 | 1515.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1505.4 | 1435.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1497.6 | 1552.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -20.3 | -14.3 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Jacuipense last-5 Elo change: -20.3; Imperatriz last-5 Elo change: -14.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Jacuipense | Imperatriz |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 4 | 4 |
| Form | 8% | 8% |
| Attack | 10% | 14% |
| Defense | 67% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.5 | 3 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.8 | 7 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
56%
FT probability
2.5+
40%
FT probability
3.5+
28%
FT probability
BTTS
58%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Jacuipense | Imperatriz | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Wins | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Draws | 100% | 0% | 25% | 33% | 0% | 25% |
| Loses | 0% | 100% | 75% | 67% | 100% | 75% |
JacuipenseLDLL
ImperatrizLLDL
League goals
| Metric | Jacuipense | Imperatriz | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| GF avg | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| GA avg | 0.0 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Jacuipense | Imperatriz | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 50% | 75% | 75% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 0% | 50% | 0% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 25% | 0% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 25% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Jacuipense | Imperatriz | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Jacuipense | Imperatriz |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Jacuipense | Imperatriz |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 0 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | — | — | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 4-1 | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Jacuipense | Imperatriz |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 40% | 60% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 0% | 0% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 71% | 29% |
| Total | 52.8% | 47.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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