Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 22:00 •
Arena da Amazonia
Expected Goals
5.35 (league 1.26)
0.27 (league 0.91)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 54.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
best score tips
5 - 0
13.2%
4 - 0
12.3%
3 - 0
9.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Guaporé | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Nacional AM | 0 | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 5.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 9.2% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 12.3% | 3.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 13.2% | 3.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Nacional AM carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 66 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Nacional AM -1.6, Guaporé -0.9.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Nacional AM
vs
Guaporé
Elo gapNacional AM +66
Home / draw / away46% / 23% / 31%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo3142.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3142.8
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Nacional AM | Guaporé |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1586.7 | 1556.1 |
| Form Elo | 1579.5 | 1552.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1554.7 | 1516.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1553.8 | 1495.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1580.5 | 1553.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -1.6 | -0.9 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Nacional AM last-5 Elo change: -1.6; Guaporé last-5 Elo change: -0.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Nacional AM | Guaporé |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 4 | 4 |
| Form | 83% | 58% |
| Attack | 57% | 19% |
| Defense | 95% | 81% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 12 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.3 | 4 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
5.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
88%
FT probability
2.5+
62%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
60%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Nacional AM | Guaporé | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Wins | 100% | 50% | 75% | 100% | 0% | 50% |
| Draws | 0% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 50% | 25% |
| Loses | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 25% |
Nacional AMWDWW
GuaporéDWLW
League goals
| Metric | Nacional AM | Guaporé | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 9 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| GF avg | 4.5 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| GA avg | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Nacional AM | Guaporé | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 75% | 25% | 75% | 50% |
| 1.5 | 75% | 0% | 25% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Nacional AM | Guaporé | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Nacional AM | Guaporé |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Nacional AM | Guaporé |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 0 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 7-0 | 0-3 | 2-1 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | — | — | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Nacional AM | Guaporé |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 59% | 41% |
| Att | 75% | 25% |
| Def | 80% | 20% |
| Poisson Distribution | 95% | 5% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 77.3% | 22.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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