Copa Norte
— Brazil
Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 22:00 •
Estadio Municipal Zinho de Oliveira
Expected Goals
0.59 (league 1.26)
8.21 (league 0.91)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% | 0.2% | 16.9% |
best score tips
0 - 5
4.7%
0 - 4
2.8%
1 - 5
2.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Amazonas | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Monte Roraima | 0 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 4.7% |
| 1 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.8% | |
| 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Monte Roraima carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 28 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Monte Roraima -10.7, Amazonas +9.3.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Monte Roraima
vs
Amazonas
Elo gapMonte Roraima +28
Home / draw / away40% / 27% / 33%
Expected home share54%
Combined Elo3049.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3049.5
Elo home share
54%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Monte Roraima | Amazonas |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1521.1 | 1528.4 |
| Form Elo | 1491.3 | 1536.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1512.5 | 1491.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1549.4 | 1502.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1508 | 1587.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -10.7 | +9.3 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Monte Roraima last-5 Elo change: -10.7; Amazonas last-5 Elo change: +9.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Monte Roraima | Amazonas |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 4 | 4 |
| Form | 8% | 50% |
| Attack | 33% | 33% |
| Defense | 38% | 81% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.8 | 7 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 13 | 3.3 | 4 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
77%
FT probability
3.5+
55%
FT probability
BTTS
78%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Monte Roraima | Amazonas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Wins | 0% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Draws | 0% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 100% | 50% | 75% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Monte RoraimaLDLL
AmazonasWLLW
League goals
| Metric | Monte Roraima | Amazonas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 3 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 6 | 7 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| GA avg | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Monte Roraima | Amazonas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 100% | 50% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 75% | 50% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 50% | 25% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 50% | 25% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 25% | 25% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Monte Roraima | Amazonas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Monte Roraima | Amazonas |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Monte Roraima | Amazonas |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | — | 2-1 | 0-5 |
| Biggest losses | 2-4 | 6-3 | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Monte Roraima | Amazonas |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 14% | 86% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 24% | 76% |
| Poisson Distribution | 6% | 94% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 23.5% | 76.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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