Tombense vs São Bernardo

Copa Sul-Sudeste — Brazil

Thu, Apr 30 2026 • 22:00 • Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida

Not Started

Tombense

—

São Bernardo

Expected Goals

3.98 (league 1.13) 1.60 (league 0.78)

1x2 probabilities

home	draw	away
57.9%	10.6%	9.8%

best score tips

3 - 1

6.3%

4 - 1

6.3%

3 - 2

5.1%

Score & goals probability table

		São Bernardo
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Tombense	0	0.4%	0.6%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
	1	1.5%	2.4%	1.9%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%
	2	3.0%	4.8%	3.8%	2.0%	0.8%	0.3%
	3	4.0%	6.3%	5.1%	2.7%	1.1%	0.3%
	4	4.0%	6.3%	5.0%	2.7%	1.1%	0.3%
	5	3.1%	5.0%	4.0%	2.1%	0.9%	0.3%

FootyWow Elo verdict

Balanced Elo outlook

Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Tombense -7.6, São Bernardo -20.3.

Thin confidence Upset risk: High Elo standalone

Tombense Elo 1464.5 · -7.6

São Bernardo Elo 1513.9 · -20.3

Elo gapSão Bernardo +14

Home / draw / away34% / 28% / 38%

Expected home share48%

Combined Elo2978.4

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Balanced Elo outlook

Confidence band Thin confidence

Upset risk High

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 2978.4

Elo home share 48%

Match tone Good Watch

Metric	Tombense	São Bernardo
Overall Elo	1464.5	1513.9
Form Elo	1449.2	1466.6
Home / Away Elo	1487	1525.4
Attack Elo	1427.7	1455.6
Defense Elo	1545.7	1577
Last 5 Elo change	-7.6	-20.3

The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Tombense last-5 Elo change: -7.6; São Bernardo last-5 Elo change: -20.3.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Tombense	São Bernardo
Played	4	4
Form	33%	8%
Attack	73%	27%
Defense	18%	45%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	8 \| 2	3 \| 0.8
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	9 \| 2.3	6 \| 1.5

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.50

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.80

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.00

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%

FT probability

2.5+

71%

FT probability

3.5+

50%

FT probability

BTTS

82%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

2-4

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Tombense			São Bernardo
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	2	2	4	2	2	4
Wins	50%	0%	25%	0%	0%	0%
Draws	50%	0%	25%	50%	0%	25%
Loses	0%	100%	50%	50%	100%	75%

TombenseWLDL

São BernardoLDLL

League goals

Metric	Tombense			São Bernardo
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	6	2	8	2	1	3
GF avg	3.0	1.0	2.0	1.0	0.5	0.8
GA total	5	4	9	3	3	6
GA avg	2.5	2.0	2.3	1.5	1.5	1.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Tombense		São Bernardo
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	75%	100%	50%	100%
1.5	75%	75%	25%	50%
2.5	50%	50%	0%	0%
3.5	0%	0%	0%	0%
4.5	0%	0%	0%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Tombense			São Bernardo
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	0	0	0	0	0	0
Failed to score	0	1	1	1	1	2

Penalties

Metric	Tombense	São Bernardo
Scored (total \| %)	1 \| 100.00%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	1	0

Streaks

Metric	Tombense	São Bernardo
Wins	1	0
Draws	1	1
Losses	1	1

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	3-2	—	—	—
Biggest losses	—	3-2	0-1	2-1
Goals For	3	2	2	1
Goals Against	3	3	2	2

Model comparison

Metric	Tombense	São Bernardo
Form	80%	20%
Att	73%	27%
Def	40%	60%
Poisson Distribution	74%	26%
H2h	0%	100%
Goals	25%	75%
Total	58.4%	41.6%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

Loading standings…

League page • Country page • Venue page • Tombense vs São Bernardo

Metric	Tombense	São Bernardo
Scored (total \| %)	1 \| 100.00%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	1	0