Araguaína vs Vila Nova

Copa Centro-Oeste — Brazil

Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 22:00 • Venue TBA

Not Started

Araguaína

—

Vila Nova

Expected Goals

2.04 (league 0.96) 0.58 (league 0.87)

1x2 probabilities

home	draw	away
70.1%	18.8%	9.3%

best score tips

2 - 0

15.2%

1 - 0

14.9%

3 - 0

10.3%

Score & goals probability table

		Vila Nova
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Araguaína	0	7.3%	4.2%	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
	1	14.9%	8.6%	2.5%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
	2	15.2%	8.8%	2.5%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
	3	10.3%	5.9%	1.7%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
	4	5.3%	3.0%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
	5	2.1%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

FootyWow Elo verdict

Balanced Elo outlook

Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Araguaína +14.3, Vila Nova -1.5.

Thin confidence Upset risk: High Elo standalone

Araguaína Elo 1519.7 · +14.3

Vila Nova Elo 1570.9 · -1.5

Elo gapVila Nova +16

Home / draw / away34% / 28% / 38%

Expected home share48%

Combined Elo3090.6

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Balanced Elo outlook

Confidence band Thin confidence

Upset risk High

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 3090.6

Elo home share 48%

Match tone Upset Watch

Metric	Araguaína	Vila Nova
Overall Elo	1519.7	1570.9
Form Elo	1584.1	1564.2
Home / Away Elo	1494	1521.2
Attack Elo	1490.6	1524.7
Defense Elo	1567.4	1605.2
Last 5 Elo change	+14.3	-1.5

The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Araguaína last-5 Elo change: +14.3; Vila Nova last-5 Elo change: -1.5.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Araguaína	Vila Nova
Played	4	4
Form	58%	42%
Attack	38%	62%
Defense	85%	77%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	5 \| 1.3	8 \| 2
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	2 \| 0.5	3 \| 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.00

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.30

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

54%

FT probability

2.5+

38%

FT probability

3.5+

27%

FT probability

BTTS

48%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Araguaína			Vila Nova
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	2	2	4	2	2	4
Wins	0%	100%	50%	50%	0%	25%
Draws	50%	0%	25%	50%	50%	50%
Loses	50%	0%	25%	0%	50%	25%

AraguaínaLWDW

Vila NovaLWDD

League goals

Metric	Araguaína			Vila Nova
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	0	5	5	6	2	8
GF avg	0.0	2.5	1.3	3.0	1.0	2.0
GA total	1	1	2	0	3	3
GA avg	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.0	1.5	0.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Araguaína		Vila Nova
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	50%	50%	50%	50%
1.5	50%	0%	50%	25%
2.5	25%	0%	25%	0%
3.5	0%	0%	25%	0%
4.5	0%	0%	25%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Araguaína			Vila Nova
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	1	1	2	2	0	2
Failed to score	2	0	2	1	1	2

Penalties

Metric	Araguaína	Vila Nova
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0

Streaks

Metric	Araguaína	Vila Nova
Wins	1	1
Draws	1	0
Losses	1	1

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	—	1-3	6-0	—
Biggest losses	0-1	—	—	1-0
Goals For	0	3	6	2
Goals Against	1	1	0	2

Model comparison

Metric	Araguaína	Vila Nova
Form	58%	42%
Att	38%	62%
Def	60%	40%
Poisson Distribution	0%	100%
H2h	0%	0%
Goals	0%	0%
Total	52.0%	48.0%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

Loading standings…

League page • Country page • Araguaína vs Vila Nova

Metric	Araguaína	Vila Nova
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0