Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 22:00 •
Estadio Jonas Duarte
Expected Goals
2.09 (league 0.96)
0.46 (league 0.87)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 73.8% | 17.3% | 6.9% |
best score tips
2 - 0
17.1%
1 - 0
16.3%
3 - 0
11.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Cuiaba | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Anápolis | 0 | 7.8% | 3.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 16.3% | 7.5% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 17.1% | 7.8% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 11.9% | 5.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 6.2% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Anápolis carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 48 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Anápolis +12.0, Cuiaba 0.0.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Anápolis
vs
Cuiaba
Elo gapAnápolis +48
Home / draw / away43% / 25% / 32%
Expected home share57%
Combined Elo3001.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3001.5
Elo home share
57%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Anápolis | Cuiaba |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1507 | 1494.5 |
| Form Elo | 1561 | 1494.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1526.7 | 1496 |
| Attack Elo | 1490.8 | 1469.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1498.9 | 1555.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +12.0 | 0.0 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Anápolis last-5 Elo change: +12.0; Cuiaba last-5 Elo change: 0.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Anápolis | Cuiaba |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 4 | 4 |
| Form | 50% | 8% |
| Attack | 38% | 15% |
| Defense | 77% | 62% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1.3 | 2 | 0.5 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.8 | 5 | 1.3 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
49%
FT probability
2.5+
35%
FT probability
3.5+
25%
FT probability
BTTS
49%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Anápolis | Cuiaba | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Wins | 100% | 0% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 0% | 25% |
| Loses | 0% | 100% | 50% | 50% | 100% | 75% |
AnápolisLWWL
CuiabaDLLL
League goals
| Metric | Anápolis | Cuiaba | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 |
| GA total | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| GA avg | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Anápolis | Cuiaba | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 75% | 50% | 25% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Anápolis | Cuiaba | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Anápolis | Cuiaba |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Anápolis | Cuiaba |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 0 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | — | — | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 2-1 | 2-3 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Goals Against | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Anápolis | Cuiaba |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 86% | 14% |
| Att | 71% | 29% |
| Def | 63% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 100% | 0% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 73.3% | 27.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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