Expected Goals
4.58 (league 1.31)
3.42 (league 0.88)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 30.4% | 11.9% | 17.6% |
best score tips
4 - 3
4.1%
5 - 3
3.8%
4 - 2
3.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Tirol/CEFAT | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Fluminense PI | 0 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 0.4% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.1% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.4% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.2% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Fluminense PI carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 78 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Fluminense PI +28.9, Tirol/CEFAT -20.8.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Fluminense PI
vs
Tirol/CEFAT
Elo gapFluminense PI +78
Home / draw / away48% / 21% / 31%
Expected home share61%
Combined Elo2966.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2966.8
Elo home share
61%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Fluminense PI | Tirol/CEFAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1504.7 | 1462.1 |
| Form Elo | 1552.6 | 1433.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1493.1 | 1487.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1502.2 | 1484.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1513.2 | 1477.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +28.9 | -20.8 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Fluminense PI last-5 Elo change: +28.9; Tirol/CEFAT last-5 Elo change: -20.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Fluminense PI | Tirol/CEFAT |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Form | 78% | 11% |
| Attack | 50% | 21% |
| Defense | 79% | 64% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 2.3 | 3 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1.7 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
73%
FT probability
3.5+
52%
FT probability
BTTS
85%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Fluminense PI | Tirol/CEFAT | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Wins | 50% | 100% | 67% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Draws | 50% | 0% | 33% | 50% | 0% | 33% |
| Loses | 0% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 100% | 67% |
Fluminense PIDWW
Tirol/CEFATLLD
League goals
| Metric | Fluminense PI | Tirol/CEFAT | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Fluminense PI | Tirol/CEFAT | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% | 33% | 67% |
| 2.5 | 67% | 0% | 0% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Fluminense PI | Tirol/CEFAT | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Fluminense PI | Tirol/CEFAT |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Fluminense PI | Tirol/CEFAT |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 0 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-2 | 0-3 | — | — |
| Biggest losses | — | — | 1-2 | 3-2 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Fluminense PI | Tirol/CEFAT |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 88% | 13% |
| Att | 70% | 30% |
| Def | 63% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 59% | 41% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 70.0% | 30.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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