Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 19:00 •
Estadio Antonio Moreno de Mello
Expected Goals
2.29 (league 1.31)
2.28 (league 0.88)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 37.6% | 19.2% | 37.4% |
best score tips
2 - 2
7.1%
2 - 1
6.2%
1 - 2
6.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Maracanã | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Iguatu | 0 | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 2.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.2% | |
| 2 | 2.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | |
| 3 | 2.1% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.1% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Iguatu carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 88 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Iguatu +21.2, Maracanã +25.8.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Iguatu
vs
Maracanã
Elo gapIguatu +88
Home / draw / away50% / 20% / 30%
Expected home share62%
Combined Elo3019.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3019.2
Elo home share
62%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Iguatu | Maracanã |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1536.2 | 1483 |
| Form Elo | 1572.2 | 1522.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1537.6 | 1479.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1491.4 | 1443.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1570.5 | 1502.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +21.2 | +25.8 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Iguatu last-5 Elo change: +21.2; Maracanã last-5 Elo change: +25.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Iguatu | Maracanã |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Form | 78% | 78% |
| Attack | 38% | 38% |
| Defense | 85% | 85% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1.7 | 5 | 1.7 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.7 | 2 | 0.7 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
81%
FT probability
2.5+
57%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
65%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Iguatu | Maracanã | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Wins | 50% | 100% | 67% | 100% | 0% | 67% |
| Draws | 50% | 0% | 33% | 0% | 100% | 33% |
| Loses | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
IguatuDWW
MaracanãDWW
League goals
| Metric | Iguatu | Maracanã | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Iguatu | Maracanã | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 33% | 100% | 33% |
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Iguatu | Maracanã | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Iguatu | Maracanã |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Iguatu | Maracanã |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 0 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 0 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-2 | 0-2 | 2-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | — | — | — |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Iguatu | Maracanã |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 52% | 48% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 55% | 45% |
| Total | 51.2% | 48.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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