Serie D — Brazil
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 19:00 • Venue TBA
Not Started
Expected Goals
0.34 (league 1.31) 0.57 (league 0.88)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
18.0% 48.4% 33.6%
best score tips
0 - 0
40.1%
0 - 1
22.9%
1 - 0
13.8%
Score & goals probability table
CRAC
0 1 2 3 4 5
ABECAT Ouvidorense 0 40.1% 22.9% 6.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0%
1 13.8% 7.8% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
2 2.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home lean

ABECAT Ouvidorense carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 42 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: ABECAT Ouvidorense -17.1, CRAC -16.0.

Lean confidence Upset risk: Medium-high Elo standalone
ABECAT Ouvidorense Elo 1474.5 · -17.1
vs
CRAC Elo 1467.9 · -16.0
Elo gapABECAT Ouvidorense +42
Home / draw / away42% / 25% / 33%
Expected home share56%
Combined Elo2942.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home lean
Confidence band Lean confidence
Upset risk Medium-high
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 2942.4
Elo home share 56%
Match tone Good Watch
Metric ABECAT Ouvidorense CRAC
Overall Elo1474.51467.9
Form Elo1454.71443.7
Home / Away Elo1470.21466.6
Attack Elo1473.31426.9
Defense Elo1506.91546.8
Last 5 Elo change-17.1-16.0

There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. ABECAT Ouvidorense last-5 Elo change: -17.1; CRAC last-5 Elo change: -16.0.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricABECAT OuvidorenseCRAC
Played33
Form11%11%
Attack8%8%
Defense77%77%
Goals For (tot | avg)1 | 0.31 | 0.3
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 13 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

0.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

40%
FT probability

2.5+

28%
FT probability

3.5+

20%
FT probability

BTTS

54%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric ABECAT Ouvidorense CRAC
HATHAT
Played123123
Wins0%0%0%0%0%0%
Draws0%50%33%100%0%33%
Loses100%50%67%0%100%67%
ABECAT OuvidorenseLLD
CRACLDL

League goals

Metric ABECAT Ouvidorense CRAC
HATHAT
GF total011011
GF avg0.00.50.30.00.50.3
GA total123033
GA avg1.01.01.00.01.51.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineABECAT OuvidorenseCRAC
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.533%100%33%67%
1.50%0%0%33%
2.50%0%0%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricABECAT OuvidorenseCRAC
HATHAT
Clean sheets000101
Failed to score112112

Penalties

MetricABECAT OuvidorenseCRAC
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricABECAT OuvidorenseCRAC
Wins00
Draws01
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins————
Biggest losses0-11-0—2-1
Goals For0101
Goals Against1102

Model comparison

MetricABECAT OuvidorenseCRAC
Form50%50%
Att50%50%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution0%100%
H2h100%0%
Goals100%0%
Total50.0%50.0%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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