Expected Goals
0.34 (league 1.31)
0.57 (league 0.88)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 18.0% | 48.4% | 33.6% |
best score tips
0 - 0
40.1%
0 - 1
22.9%
1 - 0
13.8%
Score & goals probability table
| CRAC | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| ABECAT Ouvidorense | 0 | 40.1% | 22.9% | 6.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 13.8% | 7.8% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
ABECAT Ouvidorense carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 42 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: ABECAT Ouvidorense -17.1, CRAC -16.0.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
ABECAT Ouvidorense
vs
CRAC
Elo gapABECAT Ouvidorense +42
Home / draw / away42% / 25% / 33%
Expected home share56%
Combined Elo2942.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2942.4
Elo home share
56%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | ABECAT Ouvidorense | CRAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1474.5 | 1467.9 |
| Form Elo | 1454.7 | 1443.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1470.2 | 1466.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1473.3 | 1426.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1506.9 | 1546.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -17.1 | -16.0 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. ABECAT Ouvidorense last-5 Elo change: -17.1; CRAC last-5 Elo change: -16.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | ABECAT Ouvidorense | CRAC |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Form | 11% | 11% |
| Attack | 8% | 8% |
| Defense | 77% | 77% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
0.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
0.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
40%
FT probability
2.5+
28%
FT probability
3.5+
20%
FT probability
BTTS
54%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | ABECAT Ouvidorense | CRAC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Wins | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Draws | 0% | 50% | 33% | 100% | 0% | 33% |
| Loses | 100% | 50% | 67% | 0% | 100% | 67% |
ABECAT OuvidorenseLLD
CRACLDL
League goals
| Metric | ABECAT Ouvidorense | CRAC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| GF avg | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| GA total | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | ABECAT Ouvidorense | CRAC | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 33% | 100% | 33% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | ABECAT Ouvidorense | CRAC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | ABECAT Ouvidorense | CRAC |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | ABECAT Ouvidorense | CRAC |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 0 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | — | — | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 1-0 | — | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | ABECAT Ouvidorense | CRAC |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 0% | 100% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 100% | 0% |
| Total | 50.0% | 50.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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